{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\IMC-one\Dropbox\New_folder\APSA deterrence data\Replication\JohnsonLeedsWuIIrep.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}30 Sep 2014, 21:23:12
{txt}
{com}. use "JohnsonLeedsWuIIrep.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. set more off
{txt}
{com}. 
. **************************************
. *** Tables included in the Article ***
. **************************************
. 
. *** Table 1
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6973.2794}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6562.4154}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6558.447}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6558.444}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6558.444}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2702.07
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6558.444{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1708

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4901084{col 26}{space 2} .0464286{col 37}{space 1}  -10.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5811069{col 67}{space 3}  -.39911
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2011908{col 26}{space 2} .0433459{col 37}{space 1}    4.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1162343{col 67}{space 3} .2861473
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3375305{col 26}{space 2} .0366593{col 37}{space 1}    9.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2656795{col 67}{space 3} .4093814
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4015806{col 26}{space 2} .0099164{col 37}{space 1}  -40.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4210165{col 67}{space 3}-.3821448
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0370351{col 26}{space 2}  .036209{col 37}{space 1}   -1.02{col 46}{space 3}0.306{col 54}{space 4}-.1080034{col 67}{space 3} .0339332
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4645598{col 26}{space 2} .0536836{col 37}{space 1}   -8.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5697776{col 67}{space 3}-.3593419
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0436694{col 26}{space 2} .0019209{col 37}{space 1}  -22.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0474343{col 67}{space 3}-.0399046
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006752{col 26}{space 2} .0000375{col 37}{space 1}   18.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006016{col 67}{space 3} .0007487
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.79e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.16e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.42e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.378473{col 26}{space 2} .1026117{col 37}{space 1}   13.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.177357{col 67}{space 3} 1.579588
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6975.4037}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6531.8091}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6527.8614}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6527.8584}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6527.8584}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2763.24
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6527.8584{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1747

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}allies_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7307049{col 26}{space 2} .0533781{col 37}{space 1}  -13.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8353241{col 67}{space 3}-.6260857
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2453389{col 26}{space 2} .0426829{col 37}{space 1}    5.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .161682{col 67}{space 3} .3289958
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3966326{col 26}{space 2} .0361399{col 37}{space 1}   10.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3257996{col 67}{space 3} .4674656
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4061739{col 26}{space 2} .0097545{col 37}{space 1}  -41.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4252923{col 67}{space 3}-.3870554
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0405773{col 26}{space 2} .0360628{col 37}{space 1}   -1.13{col 46}{space 3}0.261{col 54}{space 4}-.1112591{col 67}{space 3} .0301046
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5256862{col 26}{space 2} .0523835{col 37}{space 1}  -10.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6283558{col 67}{space 3}-.4230165
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.041706{col 26}{space 2}  .001925{col 37}{space 1}  -21.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.045479{col 67}{space 3}-.0379331
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006437{col 26}{space 2} .0000375{col 37}{space 1}   17.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005703{col 67}{space 3} .0007171
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.66e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.88e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.03e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.29e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.655254{col 26}{space 2} .1064007{col 37}{space 1}   15.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.446712{col 67}{space 3} 1.863795
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7172.4798}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6469.6841}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2561}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2507}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2507}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2890.46
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6464.2507{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1827

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -1.39446{col 35}{space 2} .2426547{col 46}{space 1}   -5.75{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.870054{col 76}{space 3}-.9188654
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.599997{col 35}{space 2} .2355245{col 46}{space 1}   -6.79{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.061617{col 76}{space 3}-1.138378
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9458926{col 35}{space 2} .2651957{col 46}{space 1}    3.57{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4261186{col 76}{space 3} 1.465667
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1676592{col 35}{space 2} .0442419{col 46}{space 1}    3.79{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0809468{col 76}{space 3} .2543717
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3182585{col 35}{space 2} .0375562{col 46}{space 1}    8.47{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2446497{col 76}{space 3} .3918673
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4020711{col 35}{space 2} .0098788{col 46}{space 1}  -40.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4214332{col 76}{space 3} -.382709
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0338663{col 35}{space 2} .0361888{col 46}{space 1}   -0.94{col 55}{space 3}0.349{col 63}{space 4}-.1047951{col 76}{space 3} .0370625
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4629869{col 35}{space 2} .0529946{col 46}{space 1}   -8.74{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5668543{col 76}{space 3}-.3591195
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0415847{col 35}{space 2} .0019378{col 46}{space 1}  -21.46{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0453826{col 76}{space 3}-.0377867
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006511{col 35}{space 2} .0000377{col 46}{space 1}   17.27{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005772{col 76}{space 3}  .000725
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.25{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.33e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.839114{col 35}{space 2} .2306231{col 46}{space 1}   12.31{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.387101{col 76}{space 3} 3.291127
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6871.7625}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6494.6556}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6491.0309}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6491.028}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6491.028}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2511.01
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6491.028{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1621

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}milinst {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0365115{col 26}{space 2} .0168778{col 37}{space 1}   -2.16{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4}-.0695913{col 67}{space 3}-.0034317
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2719259{col 26}{space 2} .0423304{col 37}{space 1}    6.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1889598{col 67}{space 3}  .354892
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4061747{col 26}{space 2} .0356213{col 37}{space 1}   11.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3363581{col 67}{space 3} .4759912
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3982779{col 26}{space 2} .0099181{col 37}{space 1}  -40.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4177171{col 67}{space 3}-.3788387
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0363347{col 26}{space 2} .0361244{col 37}{space 1}   -1.01{col 46}{space 3}0.315{col 54}{space 4}-.1071372{col 67}{space 3} .0344678
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5184809{col 26}{space 2} .0539124{col 37}{space 1}   -9.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6241472{col 67}{space 3}-.4128146
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.043246{col 26}{space 2} .0019229{col 37}{space 1}  -22.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0470149{col 67}{space 3}-.0394771
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006607{col 26}{space 2} .0000375{col 37}{space 1}   17.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005872{col 67}{space 3} .0007342
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.043236{col 26}{space 2} .1067426{col 37}{space 1}    9.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8340243{col 67}{space 3} 1.252448
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7058.8927}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6351.7887}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6346.4731}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6346.4676}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6346.4676}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2800.13
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6346.4676{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1807

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.405115{col 35}{space 2} .2443434{col 46}{space 1}   -5.75{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.884019{col 76}{space 3}-.9262102
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.628252{col 35}{space 2} .2388966{col 46}{space 1}   -6.82{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.096481{col 76}{space 3}-1.160023
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9599396{col 35}{space 2} .2679111{col 46}{space 1}    3.58{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4348435{col 76}{space 3} 1.485036
{txt}{space 14}milinst {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0337835{col 35}{space 2} .0168927{col 46}{space 1}   -2.00{col 55}{space 3}0.046{col 63}{space 4}-.0668925{col 76}{space 3}-.0006745
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1722057{col 35}{space 2} .0444232{col 46}{space 1}    3.88{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0851379{col 76}{space 3} .2592734
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3220157{col 35}{space 2} .0376861{col 46}{space 1}    8.54{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2481523{col 76}{space 3}  .395879
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3969087{col 35}{space 2} .0099603{col 46}{space 1}  -39.85{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4164306{col 76}{space 3}-.3773867
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0302548{col 35}{space 2} .0362091{col 46}{space 1}   -0.84{col 55}{space 3}0.403{col 63}{space 4}-.1012234{col 76}{space 3} .0407137
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4631299{col 35}{space 2} .0538592{col 46}{space 1}   -8.60{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5686921{col 76}{space 3}-.3575678
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0412024{col 35}{space 2} .0019482{col 46}{space 1}  -21.15{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0450209{col 76}{space 3} -.037384
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .000646{col 35}{space 2} .0000379{col 46}{space 1}   17.04{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005717{col 76}{space 3} .0007203
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.69e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.05{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.06e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.31e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.898929{col 35}{space 2} .2401352{col 46}{space 1}   12.07{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.428272{col 76}{space 3} 3.369585
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table 2
. 
.         gen ally_winXallies_s=ally_win*allies_s
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * All Observations
. 
.         probit dispute ally_win allies_s ally_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7036.7677}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6302.9909}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6297.8812}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6297.8765}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6297.8765}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2897.31
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6297.8765{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1870

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}          dispute{col 19}{c |}      Coef.{col 31}   Std. Err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% Con{col 72}f. Interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}ally_win {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-1.492901{col 31}{space 2}  .219996{col 42}{space 1}   -6.79{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-1.924086{col 72}{space 3}-1.061717
{txt}{space 9}allies_s {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} -1.61336{col 31}{space 2} .2132243{col 42}{space 1}   -7.57{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-2.031272{col 72}{space 3}-1.195448
{txt}ally_winXallies_s {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .9623705{col 31}{space 2} .2435889{col 42}{space 1}    3.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  .484945{col 72}{space 3} 1.439796
{txt}{space 10}milinst {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0131294{col 31}{space 2} .0171883{col 42}{space 1}   -0.76{col 51}{space 3}0.445{col 59}{space 4}-.0468178{col 72}{space 3} .0205589
{txt}{space 9}pchaloff {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1542067{col 31}{space 2} .0447843{col 42}{space 1}    3.44{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4}  .066431{col 72}{space 3} .2419823
{txt}{space 9}pchalneu {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3070528{col 31}{space 2}  .037789{col 42}{space 1}    8.13{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2329878{col 72}{space 3} .3811179
{txt}{space 6}ln_distance {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.3934673{col 31}{space 2} .0100372{col 42}{space 1}  -39.20{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.4131397{col 72}{space 3}-.3737948
{txt}{space 13}jdem {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0292637{col 31}{space 2} .0363455{col 42}{space 1}   -0.81{col 51}{space 3}0.421{col 59}{space 4}-.1004996{col 72}{space 3} .0419723
{txt}{space 9}s_un_glo {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.4331087{col 31}{space 2} .0542016{col 42}{space 1}   -7.99{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.5393419{col 72}{space 3}-.3268755
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0408881{col 31}{space 2} .0019591{col 42}{space 1}  -20.87{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.0447278{col 72}{space 3}-.0370484
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0006397{col 31}{space 2} .0000381{col 42}{space 1}   16.79{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  .000565{col 72}{space 3} .0007144
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-2.66e-06{col 31}{space 2} 1.92e-07{col 42}{space 1}  -13.83{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-3.04e-06{col 72}{space 3}-2.28e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 2.846832{col 31}{space 2} .2161368{col 42}{space 1}   13.17{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 2.423212{col 72}{space 3} 3.270452
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Target's Probability of Winning < .5
.         
.         probit dispute ally_win allies_s ally_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if t_win<.5

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-3728.0095}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:  -3366.57}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2934.5247}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2930.7689}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2930.7627}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2930.7627}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    264077
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   1594.49
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-2930.7627{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2139

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}          dispute{col 19}{c |}      Coef.{col 31}   Std. Err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% Con{col 72}f. Interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}ally_win {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-2.407695{col 31}{space 2} .3381941{col 42}{space 1}   -7.12{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-3.070543{col 72}{space 3}-1.744847
{txt}{space 9}allies_s {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-2.080545{col 31}{space 2} .2616419{col 42}{space 1}   -7.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-2.593354{col 72}{space 3}-1.567736
{txt}ally_winXallies_s {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 2.039737{col 31}{space 2} .3668498{col 42}{space 1}    5.56{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 1.320725{col 72}{space 3}  2.75875
{txt}{space 10}milinst {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0829987{col 31}{space 2} .0274653{col 42}{space 1}   -3.02{col 51}{space 3}0.003{col 59}{space 4}-.1368297{col 72}{space 3}-.0291677
{txt}{space 9}pchaloff {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .1849134{col 31}{space 2} .0557698{col 42}{space 1}    3.32{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4} .0756066{col 72}{space 3} .2942201
{txt}{space 9}pchalneu {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3694377{col 31}{space 2} .0493165{col 42}{space 1}    7.49{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2727792{col 72}{space 3} .4660963
{txt}{space 6}ln_distance {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.4159922{col 31}{space 2} .0146587{col 42}{space 1}  -28.38{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.4447226{col 72}{space 3}-.3872617
{txt}{space 13}jdem {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0291123{col 31}{space 2} .0569514{col 42}{space 1}   -0.51{col 51}{space 3}0.609{col 59}{space 4} -.140735{col 72}{space 3} .0825104
{txt}{space 9}s_un_glo {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.3932458{col 31}{space 2} .0795909{col 42}{space 1}   -4.94{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} -.549241{col 72}{space 3}-.2372506
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0419991{col 31}{space 2} .0028299{col 42}{space 1}  -14.84{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.0475457{col 72}{space 3}-.0364525
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .0006083{col 31}{space 2} .0000543{col 42}{space 1}   11.20{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0005018{col 72}{space 3} .0007148
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-2.37e-06{col 31}{space 2} 2.68e-07{col 42}{space 1}   -8.86{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-2.90e-06{col 72}{space 3}-1.85e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 3.479129{col 31}{space 2} .2838441{col 42}{space 1}   12.26{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 2.922805{col 72}{space 3} 4.035454
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Target's Probability of Winning < .25
. 
.         probit dispute ally_win allies_s ally_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if t_win<.25

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-2279.1835}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -2084.422}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1807.3276}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:  -1804.99}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1804.9857}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-1804.9857}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    170927
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}    948.40
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-1804.9857{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2081

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}          dispute{col 19}{c |}      Coef.{col 31}   Std. Err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% Con{col 72}f. Interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}ally_win {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} -1.93642{col 31}{space 2} .4121276{col 42}{space 1}   -4.70{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-2.744175{col 72}{space 3}-1.128664
{txt}{space 9}allies_s {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-1.800248{col 31}{space 2} .3012823{col 42}{space 1}   -5.98{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} -2.39075{col 72}{space 3}-1.209746
{txt}ally_winXallies_s {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 1.534703{col 31}{space 2} .4476364{col 42}{space 1}    3.43{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4}  .657352{col 72}{space 3} 2.412054
{txt}{space 10}milinst {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} -.097156{col 31}{space 2} .0356071{col 42}{space 1}   -2.73{col 51}{space 3}0.006{col 59}{space 4}-.1669445{col 72}{space 3}-.0273674
{txt}{space 9}pchaloff {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .2681037{col 31}{space 2} .0620265{col 42}{space 1}    4.32{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  .146534{col 72}{space 3} .3896734
{txt}{space 9}pchalneu {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3490414{col 31}{space 2} .0591412{col 42}{space 1}    5.90{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2331268{col 72}{space 3}  .464956
{txt}{space 6}ln_distance {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.4043323{col 31}{space 2} .0190835{col 42}{space 1}  -21.19{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.4417353{col 72}{space 3}-.3669292
{txt}{space 13}jdem {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0778898{col 31}{space 2} .0781409{col 42}{space 1}   -1.00{col 51}{space 3}0.319{col 59}{space 4}-.2310431{col 72}{space 3} .0752635
{txt}{space 9}s_un_glo {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.3104316{col 31}{space 2} .1014753{col 42}{space 1}   -3.06{col 51}{space 3}0.002{col 59}{space 4}-.5093195{col 72}{space 3}-.1115436
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} -.035679{col 31}{space 2} .0034942{col 42}{space 1}  -10.21{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.0425275{col 72}{space 3}-.0288306
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .000499{col 31}{space 2} .0000645{col 42}{space 1}    7.73{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0003725{col 72}{space 3} .0006255
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-1.86e-06{col 31}{space 2} 3.08e-07{col 42}{space 1}   -6.03{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-2.46e-06{col 72}{space 3}-1.25e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 2.993572{col 31}{space 2} .3402061{col 42}{space 1}    8.80{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  2.32678{col 72}{space 3} 3.660363
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop ally_winXallies_s
{txt}
{com}. 
.         
. ************************************    
. *** Substantive effects: Table 1 ***
. ************************************
. 
. * H1 substantive effect (footnote 23)
.         set seed 117952
{txt}
{com}. 
.         estsimp probit dispute allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7909.4794
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-6973.2794
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6579.4003
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6558.6268
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res} -6558.444
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res} -6558.444

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    585432
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}9{txt})      = {res}   2702.07
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6558.444                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1708

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
allytarg_win {c |}  {res}-.4901084   .0464286   -10.56   0.000    -.5811069     -.39911
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res} .2011908   .0433459     4.64   0.000     .1162343    .2861473
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .3375305   .0366593     9.21   0.000     .2656795    .4093814
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.4015806   .0099164   -40.50   0.000    -.4210165   -.3821448
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0370351    .036209    -1.02   0.306    -.1080034    .0339332
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.4645598   .0536836    -8.65   0.000    -.5697776   -.3593419
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res}-.0436694   .0019209   -22.73   0.000    -.0474343   -.0399046
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006752   .0000375    18.00   0.000     .0006016    .0007487
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.79e-06   1.89e-07   -14.74   0.000    -3.16e-06   -2.42e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 1.378473   .1026117    13.43   0.000     1.177357    1.579588
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10
{txt}
{com}.         
.         setx mean 
{txt}
{com}.         setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0 
{txt}
{com}.         simqi

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=0) |  {res} .9994129     .0000369     .9993378    .9994795
             {txt}Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0005871     .0000369     .0005205    .0006622
{txt}
{com}.         setx allytarg_win .74
{txt}
{com}. 
.         simqi, prval(1) genpr (weak)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0007888     .0000509     .0006959    .0008928

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): weak
{txt}
{com}.         
.         setx mean 
{txt}
{com}.         setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0 
{txt}
{com}.         setx allytarg_win .91
{txt}
{com}. 
.         simqi, prval(1) genpr (strong)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0005906     .0000371     .0005239     .000666

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): strong
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen percent_change = ((strong-weak)/weak)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~e {c |}{res}      1000   -25.08954    1.962231  -30.50703  -18.11905
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         sum changelow changepoint changehigh

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}changelow {c |}{res}    585467   -28.76752           0  -28.76752  -28.76752
{txt}{space 1}changepoint {c |}{res}    585467   -25.06427           0  -25.06427  -25.06427
{txt}{space 2}changehigh {c |}{res}    585467   -21.06942           0  -21.06942  -21.06942
{txt}
{com}.         
.         drop percent_change changelow changepoint changehigh weak strong
{txt}
{com}. 
.         drop b*
{txt}
{com}.         
.         
. * H2 substantive effect (footnote 24)
.         set seed 11729490
{txt}
{com}. 
.         estsimp probit dispute allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7909.4794
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-6975.4037
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6550.1611
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6528.0434
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res}-6527.8584
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res}-6527.8584

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    585432
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}9{txt})      = {res}   2763.24
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6527.8584                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1747

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
    allies_s {c |}  {res}-.7307049   .0533781   -13.69   0.000    -.8353241   -.6260857
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res} .2453389   .0426829     5.75   0.000      .161682    .3289958
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .3966326   .0361399    10.97   0.000     .3257996    .4674656
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.4061739   .0097545   -41.64   0.000    -.4252923   -.3870554
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0405773   .0360628    -1.13   0.261    -.1112591    .0301046
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.5256862   .0523835   -10.04   0.000    -.6283558   -.4230165
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res} -.041706    .001925   -21.67   0.000     -.045479   -.0379331
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006437   .0000375    17.18   0.000     .0005703    .0007171
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.66e-06   1.88e-07   -14.10   0.000    -3.03e-06   -2.29e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 1.655254   .1064007    15.56   0.000     1.446712    1.863795
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10
{txt}
{com}. 
.         setx mean 
{txt}
{com}.         setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0 
{txt}
{com}.         simqi

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=0) |  {res} .9994123     .0000352     .9993376    .9994746
             {txt}Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0005877     .0000352     .0005254    .0006624
{txt}
{com}.         setx allies_s .76
{txt}
{com}. 
.         simqi, prval(1) genpr (weak)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0008647     .0000523     .0007646    .0009737

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): weak
{txt}
{com}.         
.         setx mean 
{txt}
{com}.         setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0 
{txt}
{com}.         setx allies_s .91
{txt}
{com}. 
.         simqi, prval(1) genpr (strong)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res}  .000592     .0000354     .0005293     .000667

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): strong
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen percent_change = ((strong-weak)/weak)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~e {c |}{res}      1000   -31.50694    1.938398   -37.8026   -25.5771
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         sum changelow changepoint changehigh

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}changelow {c |}{res}    585467   -35.31605           0  -35.31605  -35.31605
{txt}{space 1}changepoint {c |}{res}    585467   -31.43943           0  -31.43943  -31.43943
{txt}{space 2}changehigh {c |}{res}    585467   -27.78356           0  -27.78356  -27.78356
{txt}
{com}.         
.         drop percent_change changelow changepoint changehigh weak strong
{txt}
{com}. 
.         drop b*
{txt}
{com}. 
. * H3 substantive effect: See Table A18b 
. 
. * H4 substantive effect
. 
.         set seed 37483950
{txt}
{com}.         estsimp probit dispute milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7746.5334
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-6871.7625
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6509.0809
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6491.1597
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res} -6491.028
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res} -6491.028

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    572178
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}9{txt})      = {res}   2511.01
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6491.028                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1621

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
     milinst {c |}  {res}-.0365115   .0168778    -2.16   0.031    -.0695913   -.0034317
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res} .2719259   .0423304     6.42   0.000     .1889598     .354892
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .4061747   .0356213    11.40   0.000     .3363581    .4759912
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.3982779   .0099181   -40.16   0.000    -.4177171   -.3788387
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0363347   .0361244    -1.01   0.315    -.1071372    .0344678
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.5184809   .0539124    -9.62   0.000    -.6241472   -.4128146
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res} -.043246   .0019229   -22.49   0.000    -.0470149   -.0394771
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006607   .0000375    17.62   0.000     .0005872    .0007342
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.71e-06   1.89e-07   -14.36   0.000    -3.08e-06   -2.34e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 1.043236   .1067426     9.77   0.000     .8340243    1.252448
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10
{txt}
{com}.         
.         setx mean 
{txt}
{com}.         setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0 
{txt}
{com}.         simqi

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=0) |  {res} .9993767     .0000368     .9993025    .9994458
             {txt}Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0006233     .0000368     .0005542    .0006975
{txt}
{com}.         setx milinst 1
{txt}
{com}. 
.         simqi, prval(1) genpr (weak)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0007363     .0000699     .0006118    .0008741

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): weak
{txt}
{com}.         
.         setx mean 
{txt}
{com}.         setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0 
{txt}
{com}.         setx milinst 3
{txt}
{com}. 
.         simqi, prval(1) genpr (strong)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0005677     .0000402     .0004965     .000651

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): strong
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen percent_change = ((strong-weak)/weak)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~e {c |}{res}      1000   -22.23755    8.904692  -43.85737   20.18016
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         sum changelow changepoint changehigh

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}changelow {c |}{res}    585467   -38.02927           0  -38.02927  -38.02927
{txt}{space 1}changepoint {c |}{res}    585467   -23.00874           0  -23.00874  -23.00874
{txt}{space 2}changehigh {c |}{res}    585467   -3.582535           0  -3.582535  -3.582535
{txt}
{com}.         
.         drop percent_change changelow changepoint changehigh weak strong
{txt}
{com}. 
.         drop b*
{txt}
{com}. 
.         
. ***********************************************
. ***** Tables included in the Web Appendix *****
. ***********************************************
. 
. *** Table A1: Descriptive Statistics
. 
.         sum dispute allytarg_win allies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs if allies_s~=.

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 5}dispute {c |}{res}    585432    .0018533    .0430105          0          1
{txt}allytarg_win {c |}{res}    585432    .9135257    .1741104   .0029095   .9999772
{txt}{space 4}allies_s {c |}{res}    585432    .9128602    .1507725     .02381          1
{txt}{space 5}milinst {c |}{res}    572178    2.275591    .6201537          1          3
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{res}    585432    .0300889    .1708321          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{res}    585432    .0492115    .2163096          0          1
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{res}    585432    8.198108    .8250577   1.609438   9.421168
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{res}    585432    .1212131     .326375          0          1
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{res}    585432    .7009594    .1966677   -.217391          1
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{res}    585432    34.94361     34.3619          0        184
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A2: drop ongoing dispute years
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if mzongo==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7637.5976}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6761.4816}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6370.1991}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6366.6011}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6366.5983}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6366.5983}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585099
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2542.00
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6366.5983{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1664

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4815902{col 26}{space 2} .0471137{col 37}{space 1}  -10.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5739313{col 67}{space 3} -.389249
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2058681{col 26}{space 2} .0435822{col 37}{space 1}    4.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1204485{col 67}{space 3} .2912877
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3383507{col 26}{space 2} .0371215{col 37}{space 1}    9.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .265594{col 67}{space 3} .4111075
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4032923{col 26}{space 2} .0100931{col 37}{space 1}  -39.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4230745{col 67}{space 3}-.3835101
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0367285{col 26}{space 2} .0365806{col 37}{space 1}   -1.00{col 46}{space 3}0.315{col 54}{space 4}-.1084251{col 67}{space 3} .0349681
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4728003{col 26}{space 2} .0542836{col 37}{space 1}   -8.71{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5791942{col 67}{space 3}-.3664064
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0414563{col 26}{space 2} .0019349{col 37}{space 1}  -21.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0452487{col 67}{space 3}-.0376638
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006406{col 26}{space 2} .0000376{col 37}{space 1}   17.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000567{col 67}{space 3} .0007143
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.64e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.01{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.01e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.27e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.359615{col 26}{space 2} .1041928{col 37}{space 1}   13.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.155401{col 67}{space 3}  1.56383
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if mzongo==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7637.5976}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6761.9455}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6338.024}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6334.4551}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6334.4523}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6334.4523}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585099
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2606.29
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6334.4523{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1706

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}allies_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7373449{col 26}{space 2} .0542797{col 37}{space 1}  -13.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.843731{col 67}{space 3}-.6309587
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2475074{col 26}{space 2} .0429658{col 37}{space 1}    5.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1632959{col 67}{space 3} .3317189
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3968202{col 26}{space 2} .0366133{col 37}{space 1}   10.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3250593{col 67}{space 3}  .468581
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4086522{col 26}{space 2} .0099326{col 37}{space 1}  -41.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4281197{col 67}{space 3}-.3891847
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0415313{col 26}{space 2} .0364591{col 37}{space 1}   -1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.255{col 54}{space 4}-.1129898{col 67}{space 3} .0299271
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5323644{col 26}{space 2}  .052958{col 37}{space 1}  -10.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6361602{col 67}{space 3}-.4285687
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0395342{col 26}{space 2}   .00194{col 37}{space 1}  -20.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0433366{col 67}{space 3}-.0357319
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006101{col 26}{space 2} .0000375{col 37}{space 1}   16.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005366{col 67}{space 3} .0006837
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.52e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.88e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -13.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.89e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.15e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.654449{col 26}{space 2} .1082882{col 37}{space 1}   15.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.442208{col 67}{space 3}  1.86669
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
.         
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3  if mzongo==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7637.5976}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6958.6752}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6279.5143}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6274.5077}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6274.5026}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6274.5026}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585099
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2726.19
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6274.5026{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1785

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.382053{col 35}{space 2} .2459419{col 46}{space 1}   -5.62{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -1.86409{col 76}{space 3}-.9000153
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.601925{col 35}{space 2} .2386747{col 46}{space 1}   -6.71{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.069719{col 76}{space 3}-1.134131
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9422618{col 35}{space 2} .2688966{col 46}{space 1}    3.50{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4152342{col 76}{space 3} 1.469289
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1727829{col 35}{space 2} .0444822{col 46}{space 1}    3.88{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0855994{col 76}{space 3} .2599663
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .319212{col 35}{space 2} .0380451{col 46}{space 1}    8.39{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}  .244645{col 76}{space 3} .3937789
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4042265{col 35}{space 2} .0100583{col 46}{space 1}  -40.19{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4239404{col 76}{space 3}-.3845125
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0342964{col 35}{space 2} .0365709{col 46}{space 1}   -0.94{col 55}{space 3}0.348{col 63}{space 4} -.105974{col 76}{space 3} .0373813
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4712474{col 35}{space 2}  .053573{col 46}{space 1}   -8.80{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5762486{col 76}{space 3}-.3662461
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0393808{col 35}{space 2} .0019528{col 46}{space 1}  -20.17{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0432083{col 76}{space 3}-.0355533
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006169{col 35}{space 2} .0000378{col 46}{space 1}   16.33{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005428{col 76}{space 3} .0006909
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.56e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -13.53{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.93e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.19e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.824592{col 35}{space 2} .2335552{col 46}{space 1}   12.09{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.366832{col 76}{space 3} 3.282352
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3  if mzongo==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7474.7489}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6657.6608}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6299.321}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6296.0104}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6296.0077}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6296.0077}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    571852
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2357.48
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6296.0077{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1577

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}milinst {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0361659{col 26}{space 2} .0171518{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}-.0697829{col 67}{space 3} -.002549
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2745515{col 26}{space 2} .0425962{col 37}{space 1}    6.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1910645{col 67}{space 3} .3580385
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4065064{col 26}{space 2} .0360661{col 37}{space 1}   11.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3358182{col 67}{space 3} .4771947
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4000113{col 26}{space 2}  .010098{col 37}{space 1}  -39.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4198031{col 67}{space 3}-.3802195
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.035907{col 26}{space 2} .0365106{col 37}{space 1}   -0.98{col 46}{space 3}0.325{col 54}{space 4}-.1074664{col 67}{space 3} .0356524
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5261534{col 26}{space 2}  .054534{col 37}{space 1}   -9.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6330381{col 67}{space 3}-.4192687
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0409973{col 26}{space 2} .0019375{col 37}{space 1}  -21.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0447948{col 67}{space 3}-.0371998
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006258{col 26}{space 2} .0000376{col 37}{space 1}   16.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005522{col 67}{space 3} .0006994
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.57e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.88e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -13.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.94e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.20e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.029891{col 26}{space 2} .1084541{col 37}{space 1}    9.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8173253{col 67}{space 3} 1.242458
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3  if mzongo==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7474.7489}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6844.504}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6161.4661}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6156.5633}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6156.5581}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6156.5581}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    571852
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2636.38
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6156.5581{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1764

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.393517{col 35}{space 2} .2476539{col 46}{space 1}   -5.63{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -1.87891{col 76}{space 3}-.9081247
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.632744{col 35}{space 2} .2421267{col 46}{space 1}   -6.74{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.107303{col 76}{space 3}-1.158184
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9583435{col 35}{space 2} .2716725{col 46}{space 1}    3.53{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4258751{col 76}{space 3} 1.490812
{txt}{space 14}milinst {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0339302{col 35}{space 2} .0171457{col 46}{space 1}   -1.98{col 55}{space 3}0.048{col 63}{space 4}-.0675353{col 76}{space 3}-.0003252
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1778585{col 35}{space 2} .0446612{col 46}{space 1}    3.98{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0903242{col 76}{space 3} .2653928
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3232078{col 35}{space 2} .0381738{col 46}{space 1}    8.47{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2483885{col 76}{space 3} .3980271
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3989368{col 35}{space 2} .0101434{col 46}{space 1}  -39.33{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4188174{col 76}{space 3}-.3790562
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.030052{col 35}{space 2} .0365907{col 46}{space 1}   -0.82{col 55}{space 3}0.411{col 63}{space 4}-.1017685{col 76}{space 3} .0416645
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4725368{col 35}{space 2} .0544645{col 46}{space 1}   -8.68{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5792854{col 76}{space 3}-.3657883
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0389418{col 35}{space 2} .0019638{col 46}{space 1}  -19.83{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0427908{col 76}{space 3}-.0350928
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006109{col 35}{space 2}  .000038{col 46}{space 1}   16.08{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005364{col 76}{space 3} .0006853
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.54e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -13.32{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.91e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.17e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.884969{col 35}{space 2} .2432501{col 46}{space 1}   11.86{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.408207{col 76}{space 3}  3.36173
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A3: drop alliances formed in year of dispute
. 
.         gen alliance_entry=0
{txt}
{com}.         replace alliance_entry=1 if entry_dum==1 & dispute==1
{txt}(63 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if alliance_entry==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7511.2988}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6627.0766}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6225.0686}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6221.3552}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6221.3525}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6221.3525}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585369
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2579.89
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6221.3525{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1717

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4384797{col 26}{space 2} .0486718{col 37}{space 1}   -9.01{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5338748{col 67}{space 3}-.3430847
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1857198{col 26}{space 2} .0451942{col 37}{space 1}    4.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0971407{col 67}{space 3} .2742988
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3643117{col 26}{space 2} .0369987{col 37}{space 1}    9.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2917956{col 67}{space 3} .4368278
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4022792{col 26}{space 2} .0101443{col 37}{space 1}  -39.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4221616{col 67}{space 3}-.3823968
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0282693{col 26}{space 2} .0367108{col 37}{space 1}   -0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.441{col 54}{space 4}-.1002212{col 67}{space 3} .0436826
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.425628{col 26}{space 2} .0554386{col 37}{space 1}   -7.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5342857{col 67}{space 3}-.3169702
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}   -.0436{col 26}{space 2} .0019672{col 37}{space 1}  -22.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0474556{col 67}{space 3}-.0397444
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006678{col 26}{space 2} .0000383{col 37}{space 1}   17.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005928{col 67}{space 3} .0007427
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.74e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.92e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.11e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.36e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.28933{col 26}{space 2} .1055024{col 37}{space 1}   12.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.082549{col 67}{space 3}  1.49611
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if alliance_entry==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7511.2988}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6622.1346}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6182.4289}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6178.706}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6178.7032}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6178.7032}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585369
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2665.19
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6178.7032{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1774

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}allies_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7395024{col 26}{space 2} .0543269{col 37}{space 1}  -13.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8459812{col 67}{space 3}-.6330236
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2243488{col 26}{space 2}   .04458{col 37}{space 1}    5.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1369736{col 67}{space 3}  .311724
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4156304{col 26}{space 2} .0365481{col 37}{space 1}   11.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3439974{col 67}{space 3} .4872633
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4071467{col 26}{space 2} .0099905{col 37}{space 1}  -40.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4267277{col 67}{space 3}-.3875657
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0303711{col 26}{space 2} .0365876{col 37}{space 1}   -0.83{col 46}{space 3}0.406{col 54}{space 4}-.1020815{col 67}{space 3} .0413393
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.480305{col 26}{space 2} .0541339{col 37}{space 1}   -8.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5864055{col 67}{space 3}-.3742044
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0416168{col 26}{space 2} .0019737{col 37}{space 1}  -21.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0454852{col 67}{space 3}-.0377484
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006374{col 26}{space 2} .0000382{col 37}{space 1}   16.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005625{col 67}{space 3} .0007124
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.61e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -13.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.99e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.24e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.614055{col 26}{space 2} .1089606{col 37}{space 1}   14.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.400496{col 67}{space 3} 1.827614
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
.         
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if alliance_entry==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7511.2988}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6817.9805}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6134.348}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6129.0554}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6129.0497}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6129.0497}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585369
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2764.50
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6129.0497{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1840

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -1.40905{col 35}{space 2} .2478307{col 46}{space 1}   -5.69{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.894789{col 76}{space 3}-.9233107
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.671236{col 35}{space 2} .2414302{col 46}{space 1}   -6.92{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -2.14443{col 76}{space 3}-1.198041
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.023982{col 35}{space 2} .2717019{col 46}{space 1}    3.77{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4914564{col 76}{space 3} 1.556508
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1513551{col 35}{space 2} .0461754{col 46}{space 1}    3.28{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4}  .060853{col 76}{space 3} .2418572
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3451059{col 35}{space 2} .0379249{col 46}{space 1}    9.10{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2707745{col 76}{space 3} .4194373
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4028398{col 35}{space 2} .0101044{col 46}{space 1}  -39.87{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4226439{col 76}{space 3}-.3830356
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0244606{col 35}{space 2} .0366882{col 46}{space 1}   -0.67{col 55}{space 3}0.505{col 63}{space 4}-.0963682{col 76}{space 3} .0474471
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4243898{col 35}{space 2} .0547479{col 46}{space 1}   -7.75{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5316937{col 76}{space 3} -.317086
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0414579{col 35}{space 2} .0019844{col 46}{space 1}  -20.89{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0453472{col 76}{space 3}-.0375685
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .000643{col 35}{space 2} .0000384{col 46}{space 1}   16.73{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005677{col 76}{space 3} .0007184
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.65e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.93e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -13.77{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.03e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.27e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.810227{col 35}{space 2} .2357242{col 46}{space 1}   11.92{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.348216{col 76}{space 3} 3.272238
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if alliance_entry==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7354.8144}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6523.718}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6148.7414}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6145.3522}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6145.3496}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6145.3496}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572116
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2418.93
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6145.3496{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1644

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}milinst {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0338987{col 26}{space 2} .0173192{col 37}{space 1}   -1.96{col 46}{space 3}0.050{col 54}{space 4}-.0678437{col 67}{space 3} .0000464
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2513376{col 26}{space 2} .0441896{col 37}{space 1}    5.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1647276{col 67}{space 3} .3379476
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4251764{col 26}{space 2} .0360093{col 37}{space 1}   11.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3545994{col 67}{space 3} .4957534
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3988602{col 26}{space 2} .0101615{col 37}{space 1}  -39.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4187763{col 67}{space 3}-.3789441
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0272421{col 26}{space 2} .0366581{col 37}{space 1}   -0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.457{col 54}{space 4}-.0990906{col 67}{space 3} .0446063
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4708818{col 26}{space 2} .0557198{col 37}{space 1}   -8.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5800905{col 67}{space 3} -.361673
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0432318{col 26}{space 2} .0019717{col 37}{space 1}  -21.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0470962{col 67}{space 3}-.0393674
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006554{col 26}{space 2} .0000383{col 37}{space 1}   17.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005803{col 67}{space 3} .0007304
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.67e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.92e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -13.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.05e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9852542{col 26}{space 2} .1094707{col 37}{space 1}    9.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7706955{col 67}{space 3} 1.199813
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if alliance_entry==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7354.8144}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6708.1297}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6021.1601}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6015.983}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6015.9773}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6015.9773}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572116
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2677.67
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6015.9773{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1820

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.422349{col 35}{space 2} .2496023{col 46}{space 1}   -5.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.911561{col 76}{space 3}-.9331377
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.707987{col 35}{space 2} .2450507{col 46}{space 1}   -6.97{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.188278{col 76}{space 3}-1.227697
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.047043{col 35}{space 2} .2746406{col 46}{space 1}    3.81{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .5087578{col 76}{space 3} 1.585329
{txt}{space 14}milinst {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0353998{col 35}{space 2}  .017292{col 46}{space 1}   -2.05{col 55}{space 3}0.041{col 63}{space 4}-.0692915{col 76}{space 3}-.0015082
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1570165{col 35}{space 2} .0463587{col 46}{space 1}    3.39{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4} .0661552{col 76}{space 3} .2478779
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3495797{col 35}{space 2} .0380501{col 46}{space 1}    9.19{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2750029{col 76}{space 3} .4241564
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3978302{col 35}{space 2} .0101884{col 46}{space 1}  -39.05{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4177991{col 76}{space 3}-.3778612
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0202114{col 35}{space 2} .0367093{col 46}{space 1}   -0.55{col 55}{space 3}0.582{col 63}{space 4}-.0921602{col 76}{space 3} .0517374
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4256453{col 35}{space 2} .0556374{col 46}{space 1}   -7.65{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5346926{col 76}{space 3}-.3165981
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0411181{col 35}{space 2}  .001995{col 46}{space 1}  -20.61{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0450282{col 76}{space 3} -.037208
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006383{col 35}{space 2} .0000386{col 46}{space 1}   16.52{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005625{col 76}{space 3}  .000714
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.63e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.94e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -13.58{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.01e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.25e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.878715{col 35}{space 2} .2455976{col 46}{space 1}   11.72{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.397352{col 76}{space 3} 3.360077
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop alliance_entry
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A4: excluding observations where the potential target is a member of NATO
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if nato_member==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6219.9274}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5453.6121}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5037.3597}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5033.2807}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5033.2766}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5033.2766}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    496898
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2373.30
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5033.2766{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1908

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6128946{col 26}{space 2} .0500483{col 37}{space 1}  -12.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7109874{col 67}{space 3}-.5148018
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2317816{col 26}{space 2} .0486059{col 37}{space 1}    4.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1365158{col 67}{space 3} .3270473
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2022434{col 26}{space 2} .0464978{col 37}{space 1}    4.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1111093{col 67}{space 3} .2933775
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4152933{col 26}{space 2} .0109828{col 37}{space 1}  -37.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4368192{col 67}{space 3}-.3937674
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0602768{col 26}{space 2}  .050215{col 37}{space 1}   -1.20{col 46}{space 3}0.230{col 54}{space 4}-.1586963{col 67}{space 3} .0381427
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1622059{col 26}{space 2} .0646098{col 37}{space 1}   -2.51{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4}-.2888388{col 67}{space 3} -.035573
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0448451{col 26}{space 2} .0023814{col 37}{space 1}  -18.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0495126{col 67}{space 3}-.0401776
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007309{col 26}{space 2} .0000513{col 37}{space 1}   14.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006304{col 67}{space 3} .0008314
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.17e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.83e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -11.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.72e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.61e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.317727{col 26}{space 2} .1139324{col 37}{space 1}   11.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.094424{col 67}{space 3} 1.541031
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if nato_member==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6219.9274}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5499.2912}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5063.6975}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5060.2596}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5060.2568}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5060.2568}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    496898
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2319.34
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5060.2568{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1864

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}allies_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5679641{col 26}{space 2} .0603491{col 37}{space 1}   -9.41{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6862461{col 67}{space 3}-.4496821
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3085175{col 26}{space 2} .0473585{col 37}{space 1}    6.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2156966{col 67}{space 3} .4013385
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2967144{col 26}{space 2}  .045129{col 37}{space 1}    6.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2082631{col 67}{space 3} .3851656
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4166015{col 26}{space 2} .0107024{col 37}{space 1}  -38.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4375778{col 67}{space 3}-.3956252
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0377241{col 26}{space 2} .0496302{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.447{col 54}{space 4}-.1349975{col 67}{space 3} .0595493
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3215349{col 26}{space 2} .0623049{col 37}{space 1}   -5.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4436503{col 67}{space 3}-.1994195
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0431957{col 26}{space 2} .0023681{col 37}{space 1}  -18.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0478371{col 67}{space 3}-.0385543
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007013{col 26}{space 2} .0000508{col 37}{space 1}   13.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006018{col 67}{space 3} .0008008
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.03e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.79e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -10.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.58e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.48e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.410269{col 26}{space 2}   .11984{col 37}{space 1}   11.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.175387{col 67}{space 3} 1.645151
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if nato_member==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6219.9274}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5659.6249}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4983.4986}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4977.9558}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4977.9464}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4977.9464}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    496898
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2483.96
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4977.9464{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1997

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.832325{col 35}{space 2} .2579049{col 46}{space 1}   -7.10{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -2.33781{col 76}{space 3}-1.326841
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.730762{col 35}{space 2} .2432353{col 46}{space 1}   -7.12{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.207494{col 76}{space 3}-1.254029
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.301428{col 35}{space 2} .2810137{col 46}{space 1}    4.63{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .7506512{col 76}{space 3} 1.852205
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2009963{col 35}{space 2} .0496289{col 46}{space 1}    4.05{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .1037255{col 76}{space 3} .2982672
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1761997{col 35}{space 2} .0477985{col 46}{space 1}    3.69{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0825163{col 76}{space 3} .2698831
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4140219{col 35}{space 2} .0109514{col 46}{space 1}  -37.81{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4354863{col 76}{space 3}-.3925575
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0607105{col 35}{space 2} .0501716{col 46}{space 1}   -1.21{col 55}{space 3}0.226{col 63}{space 4}-.1590451{col 76}{space 3} .0376241
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1732224{col 35}{space 2} .0645294{col 46}{space 1}   -2.68{col 55}{space 3}0.007{col 63}{space 4}-.2996977{col 76}{space 3}-.0467471
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0432592{col 35}{space 2}  .002398{col 46}{space 1}  -18.04{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0479593{col 76}{space 3}-.0385592
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0007156{col 35}{space 2} .0000515{col 46}{space 1}   13.90{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0006147{col 76}{space 3} .0008166
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.13e-06{col 35}{space 2} 2.84e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -11.02{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.68e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.57e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.897046{col 35}{space 2} .2416558{col 46}{space 1}   11.99{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.423409{col 76}{space 3} 3.370682
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if nato_member==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6057.118}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5357.045}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -4971.605}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4968.5115}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4968.5091}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4968.5091}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    483644
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2177.22
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4968.5091{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1797

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}milinst {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1137094{col 26}{space 2} .0196993{col 37}{space 1}   -5.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1523193{col 67}{space 3}-.0750995
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3301724{col 26}{space 2} .0472501{col 37}{space 1}    6.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2375639{col 67}{space 3}  .422781
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3063793{col 26}{space 2}   .04469{col 37}{space 1}    6.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2187885{col 67}{space 3} .3939702
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4102557{col 26}{space 2} .0109351{col 37}{space 1}  -37.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.431688{col 67}{space 3}-.3888233
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0650115{col 26}{space 2} .0500768{col 37}{space 1}   -1.30{col 46}{space 3}0.194{col 54}{space 4}-.1631602{col 67}{space 3} .0331373
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2814767{col 26}{space 2} .0634287{col 37}{space 1}   -4.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4057946{col 67}{space 3}-.1571587
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0446832{col 26}{space 2} .0023844{col 37}{space 1}  -18.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0493565{col 67}{space 3}-.0400099
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007139{col 26}{space 2} .0000513{col 37}{space 1}   13.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006134{col 67}{space 3} .0008145
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.06e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.82e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -10.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.62e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.51e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.093297{col 26}{space 2} .1186458{col 37}{space 1}    9.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8607557{col 67}{space 3} 1.325839
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if nato_member==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6057.118}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5532.3251}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -4849.916}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4844.2805}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4844.2702}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4844.2702}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    483644
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2425.70
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4844.2702{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2002

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.909942{col 35}{space 2} .2607946{col 46}{space 1}   -7.32{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -2.42109{col 76}{space 3}-1.398794
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.863827{col 35}{space 2} .2484983{col 46}{space 1}   -7.50{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.350875{col 76}{space 3}-1.376779
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.395808{col 35}{space 2} .2853013{col 46}{space 1}    4.89{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .8366273{col 76}{space 3} 1.954988
{txt}{space 14}milinst {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1184508{col 35}{space 2} .0195251{col 46}{space 1}   -6.07{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.1567194{col 76}{space 3}-.0801823
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2044509{col 35}{space 2} .0500492{col 46}{space 1}    4.08{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .1063563{col 76}{space 3} .3025455
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .178945{col 35}{space 2} .0481262{col 46}{space 1}    3.72{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0846193{col 76}{space 3} .2732706
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4087055{col 35}{space 2} .0110877{col 46}{space 1}  -36.86{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -.430437{col 76}{space 3} -.386974
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0956729{col 35}{space 2} .0506187{col 46}{space 1}   -1.89{col 55}{space 3}0.059{col 63}{space 4}-.1948838{col 76}{space 3}  .003538
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1713165{col 35}{space 2} .0656039{col 46}{space 1}   -2.61{col 55}{space 3}0.009{col 63}{space 4}-.2998978{col 76}{space 3}-.0427351
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0433726{col 35}{space 2} .0024249{col 46}{space 1}  -17.89{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0481254{col 76}{space 3}-.0386198
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0007169{col 35}{space 2} .0000523{col 46}{space 1}   13.71{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0006144{col 76}{space 3} .0008193
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.14e-06{col 35}{space 2} 2.89e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -10.87{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.70e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.57e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 3.232095{col 35}{space 2} .2548714{col 46}{space 1}   12.68{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.732556{col 76}{space 3} 3.731633
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 2 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. 
.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A5: drop all cases in which challenger and target share a defense pact with one another 
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if pchaldef==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5954.3555}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5273.6649}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4941.1853}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4938.2642}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4938.2619}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4938.2619}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    528091
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2032.19
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4938.2619{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1706

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4840655{col 26}{space 2} .0517274{col 37}{space 1}   -9.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5854494{col 67}{space 3}-.3826816
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2438589{col 26}{space 2} .0494815{col 37}{space 1}    4.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .146877{col 67}{space 3} .3408409
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .303967{col 26}{space 2} .0427738{col 37}{space 1}    7.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2201319{col 67}{space 3} .3878022
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4087114{col 26}{space 2} .0115786{col 37}{space 1}  -35.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.431405{col 67}{space 3}-.3860178
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1201481{col 26}{space 2} .0483586{col 37}{space 1}   -2.48{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4}-.2149292{col 67}{space 3} -.025367
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5440884{col 26}{space 2} .0621887{col 37}{space 1}   -8.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6659761{col 67}{space 3}-.4222007
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0432469{col 26}{space 2} .0021859{col 37}{space 1}  -19.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0475312{col 67}{space 3}-.0389626
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006658{col 26}{space 2} .0000423{col 37}{space 1}   15.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005829{col 67}{space 3} .0007488
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.69e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.12e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -12.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.11e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.28e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.447881{col 26}{space 2} .1137446{col 37}{space 1}   12.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.224945{col 67}{space 3} 1.670816
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 if pchaldef==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5954.3555}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5275.4984}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4898.2291}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4895.3353}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4895.3331}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4895.3331}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    528091
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2118.04
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4895.3331{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1779

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}allies_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7926074{col 26}{space 2} .0571385{col 37}{space 1}  -13.87{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9045968{col 67}{space 3} -.680618
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2668962{col 26}{space 2} .0491164{col 37}{space 1}    5.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1706298{col 67}{space 3} .3631627
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3552642{col 26}{space 2} .0425665{col 37}{space 1}    8.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2718355{col 67}{space 3}  .438693
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4070731{col 26}{space 2} .0113746{col 37}{space 1}  -35.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4293669{col 67}{space 3}-.3847793
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.121256{col 26}{space 2} .0481503{col 37}{space 1}   -2.52{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} -.215629{col 67}{space 3}-.0268831
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6611729{col 26}{space 2} .0603937{col 37}{space 1}  -10.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7795423{col 67}{space 3}-.5428035
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0411871{col 26}{space 2}  .002194{col 37}{space 1}  -18.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0454873{col 67}{space 3}-.0368869
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000633{col 26}{space 2} .0000423{col 37}{space 1}   14.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005501{col 67}{space 3} .0007159
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.56e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.11e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -12.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.97e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.14e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.767619{col 26}{space 2} .1161928{col 37}{space 1}   15.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.539886{col 67}{space 3} 1.995353
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3  if pchaldef==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5954.3555}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5586.7915}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4846.3685}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4840.5425}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4840.5311}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4840.5311}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    528091
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2227.65
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4840.5311{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1871

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.549511{col 35}{space 2} .2497504{col 46}{space 1}   -6.20{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.039012{col 76}{space 3}-1.060009
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.817897{col 35}{space 2} .2442291{col 46}{space 1}   -7.44{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.296577{col 76}{space 3}-1.339217
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.126318{col 35}{space 2} .2765266{col 46}{space 1}    4.07{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .5843361{col 76}{space 3} 1.668301
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1870051{col 35}{space 2} .0509869{col 46}{space 1}    3.67{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0870725{col 76}{space 3} .2869377
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2711404{col 35}{space 2} .0443838{col 46}{space 1}    6.11{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .1841499{col 76}{space 3}  .358131
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3995801{col 35}{space 2} .0115624{col 46}{space 1}  -34.56{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -.422242{col 76}{space 3}-.3769182
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1132709{col 35}{space 2} .0483983{col 46}{space 1}   -2.34{col 55}{space 3}0.019{col 63}{space 4}-.2081298{col 76}{space 3}-.0184119
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.6164895{col 35}{space 2} .0605266{col 46}{space 1}  -10.19{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.7351194{col 76}{space 3}-.4978595
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0408189{col 35}{space 2} .0022097{col 46}{space 1}  -18.47{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0451498{col 76}{space 3}-.0364879
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .000636{col 35}{space 2} .0000425{col 46}{space 1}   14.95{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005526{col 76}{space 3} .0007193
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.58e-06{col 35}{space 2} 2.13e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -12.15{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.00e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.17e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 3.070256{col 35}{space 2}    .2389{col 46}{space 1}   12.85{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.602021{col 76}{space 3} 3.538491
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3  if pchaldef==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5798.071}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5166.6626}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4868.2909}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4865.7229}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4865.7209}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4865.7209}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    514921
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   1864.70
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4865.7209{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1608

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}milinst {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.050198{col 26}{space 2} .0187369{col 37}{space 1}   -2.68{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4}-.0869217{col 67}{space 3}-.0134743
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3149058{col 26}{space 2} .0484773{col 37}{space 1}    6.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2198921{col 67}{space 3} .4099195
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3725785{col 26}{space 2}  .041678{col 37}{space 1}    8.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2908912{col 67}{space 3} .4542658
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4063455{col 26}{space 2} .0115707{col 37}{space 1}  -35.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4290236{col 67}{space 3}-.3836675
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1216394{col 26}{space 2} .0480874{col 37}{space 1}   -2.53{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4} -.215889{col 67}{space 3}-.0273898
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5823671{col 26}{space 2} .0633606{col 37}{space 1}   -9.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7065516{col 67}{space 3}-.4581827
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0429132{col 26}{space 2} .0021896{col 37}{space 1}  -19.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0472047{col 67}{space 3}-.0386218
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006561{col 26}{space 2} .0000424{col 37}{space 1}   15.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000573{col 67}{space 3} .0007391
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.64e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.12e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -12.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.06e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.23e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.145169{col 26}{space 2} .1185075{col 37}{space 1}    9.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9128986{col 67}{space 3}  1.37744
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3  if pchaldef==0

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5798.071}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5485.0436}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4732.2911}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4726.5808}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4726.5694}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4726.5694}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    514921
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2143.00
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4726.5694{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1848

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.572427{col 35}{space 2} .2515516{col 46}{space 1}   -6.25{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.065459{col 76}{space 3}-1.079395
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -1.87717{col 35}{space 2} .2486241{col 46}{space 1}   -7.55{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.364464{col 76}{space 3}-1.389875
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.160766{col 35}{space 2} .2800503{col 46}{space 1}    4.14{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .6118779{col 76}{space 3} 1.709655
{txt}{space 14}milinst {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0485922{col 35}{space 2} .0189227{col 46}{space 1}   -2.57{col 55}{space 3}0.010{col 63}{space 4}  -.08568{col 76}{space 3}-.0115045
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1938109{col 35}{space 2} .0512357{col 46}{space 1}    3.78{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0933907{col 76}{space 3} .2942311
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2760298{col 35}{space 2} .0445549{col 46}{space 1}    6.20{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .1887038{col 76}{space 3} .3633558
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3929472{col 35}{space 2}  .011675{col 46}{space 1}  -33.66{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4158298{col 76}{space 3}-.3700645
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1106518{col 35}{space 2} .0483762{col 46}{space 1}   -2.29{col 55}{space 3}0.022{col 63}{space 4}-.2054674{col 76}{space 3}-.0158363
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.6304197{col 35}{space 2} .0617795{col 46}{space 1}  -10.20{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.7515053{col 76}{space 3}-.5093341
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0402806{col 35}{space 2} .0022228{col 46}{space 1}  -18.12{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0446372{col 76}{space 3} -.035924
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006295{col 35}{space 2} .0000428{col 46}{space 1}   14.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005456{col 76}{space 3} .0007135
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.56e-06{col 35}{space 2} 2.15e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -11.95{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.98e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.14e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 3.180377{col 35}{space 2} .2511784{col 46}{space 1}   12.66{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.688077{col 76}{space 3} 3.672678
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A6: excluding allies that are allied to the challenger 
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_challenger pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6250.5469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5524.217}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5197.7616}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5194.8111}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5194.8089}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5194.8089}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    523177
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2111.48
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5194.8089{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1689

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                dispute{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_challenger {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4630043{col 37}{space 2} .0482305{col 48}{space 1}   -9.60{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.5575343{col 78}{space 3}-.3684742
{txt}{space 15}pchaloff {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}    .2269{col 37}{space 2} .0493557{col 48}{space 1}    4.60{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1301647{col 78}{space 3} .3236354
{txt}{space 15}pchalneu {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3416681{col 37}{space 2} .0411156{col 48}{space 1}    8.31{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2610831{col 78}{space 3} .4222532
{txt}{space 12}ln_distance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4100909{col 37}{space 2} .0113548{col 48}{space 1}  -36.12{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -.432346{col 78}{space 3}-.3878358
{txt}{space 19}jdem {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1066355{col 37}{space 2} .0464286{col 48}{space 1}   -2.30{col 57}{space 3}0.022{col 65}{space 4}-.1976339{col 78}{space 3} -.015637
{txt}{space 15}s_un_glo {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.5324876{col 37}{space 2} .0604661{col 48}{space 1}   -8.81{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -.650999{col 78}{space 3}-.4139762
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0439097{col 37}{space 2} .0021348{col 48}{space 1}  -20.57{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0480939{col 78}{space 3}-.0397256
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0006863{col 37}{space 2} .0000415{col 48}{space 1}   16.53{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0006049{col 78}{space 3} .0007677
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.82e-06{col 37}{space 2} 2.09e-07{col 48}{space 1}  -13.48{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-3.23e-06{col 78}{space 3}-2.41e-06
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.443776{col 37}{space 2} .1119071{col 48}{space 1}   12.90{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.224442{col 78}{space 3}  1.66311
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s_challenger pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6250.5469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5512.704}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5139.0817}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5135.9631}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5135.9608}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5135.9608}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    523177
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2229.17
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5135.9608{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1783

{txt}{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            dispute{col 21}{c |}      Coef.{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allies_s_challenger {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.9121722{col 33}{space 2} .0594251{col 44}{space 1}  -15.35{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-1.028643{col 74}{space 3}-.7957011
{txt}{space 11}pchaloff {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .2453512{col 33}{space 2} .0488953{col 44}{space 1}    5.02{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .1495181{col 74}{space 3} .3411842
{txt}{space 11}pchalneu {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .3800811{col 33}{space 2} .0412685{col 44}{space 1}    9.21{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .2991963{col 74}{space 3} .4609658
{txt}{space 8}ln_distance {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.4070663{col 33}{space 2} .0112076{col 44}{space 1}  -36.32{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.4290327{col 74}{space 3}-.3850999
{txt}{space 15}jdem {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1212018{col 33}{space 2} .0465857{col 44}{space 1}   -2.60{col 53}{space 3}0.009{col 61}{space 4}-.2125081{col 74}{space 3}-.0298954
{txt}{space 11}s_un_glo {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.6805244{col 33}{space 2} .0589865{col 44}{space 1}  -11.54{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.7961358{col 74}{space 3}-.5649129
{txt}{space 11}peaceyrs {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.0417501{col 33}{space 2} .0021453{col 44}{space 1}  -19.46{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.0459547{col 74}{space 3}-.0375455
{txt}{space 10}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  .000652{col 33}{space 2} .0000416{col 44}{space 1}   15.68{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4} .0005705{col 74}{space 3} .0007335
{txt}{space 10}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-2.67e-06{col 33}{space 2} 2.09e-07{col 44}{space 1}  -12.81{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 74}{space 3}-2.27e-06
{txt}{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}  1.91065{col 33}{space 2} .1177417{col 44}{space 1}   16.23{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}  1.67988{col 74}{space 3} 2.141419
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
.         
.         gen allytarg_win_cXallies_s=allytarg_win_challenger*allies_s_challenger
{txt}(62290 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute allytarg_win_challenger allies_s_challenger allytarg_win_cXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6250.5469}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5748.9592}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5075.1036}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5068.936}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5068.9251}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5068.9251}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    523177
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2363.24
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5068.9251{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1890

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                dispute{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_challenger {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.848997{col 37}{space 2} .2690669{col 48}{space 1}   -6.87{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-2.376358{col 78}{space 3}-1.321635
{txt}{space 4}allies_s_challenger {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.236754{col 37}{space 2} .2607657{col 48}{space 1}   -8.58{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-2.747846{col 78}{space 3}-1.725663
{txt}allytarg_win_cXallies_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.426173{col 37}{space 2} .2942477{col 48}{space 1}    4.85{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .8494577{col 78}{space 3} 2.002887
{txt}{space 15}pchaloff {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1673891{col 37}{space 2} .0508197{col 48}{space 1}    3.29{col 57}{space 3}0.001{col 65}{space 4} .0677844{col 78}{space 3} .2669938
{txt}{space 15}pchalneu {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .2940393{col 37}{space 2} .0430618{col 48}{space 1}    6.83{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2096398{col 78}{space 3} .3784388
{txt}{space 12}ln_distance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.398623{col 37}{space 2}  .011388{col 48}{space 1}  -35.00{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4209431{col 78}{space 3}-.3763028
{txt}{space 19}jdem {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1091819{col 37}{space 2} .0468116{col 48}{space 1}   -2.33{col 57}{space 3}0.020{col 65}{space 4} -.200931{col 78}{space 3}-.0174329
{txt}{space 15}s_un_glo {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.6489768{col 37}{space 2} .0588832{col 48}{space 1}  -11.02{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.7643857{col 78}{space 3}-.5335678
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0416747{col 37}{space 2} .0021628{col 48}{space 1}  -19.27{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0459136{col 78}{space 3}-.0374358
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0006589{col 37}{space 2} .0000419{col 48}{space 1}   15.72{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0005768{col 78}{space 3} .0007411
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 37}{space 2} 2.11e-07{col 48}{space 1}  -12.92{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-3.13e-06{col 78}{space 3}-2.31e-06
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 3.508265{col 37}{space 2} .2573252{col 48}{space 1}   13.63{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 3.003917{col 78}{space 3} 4.012613
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst_challenger pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6074.9012}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5399.0391}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5108.4428}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5105.778}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5105.7759}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5105.7759}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    509946
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   1938.25
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-5105.7759{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1595

{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}           dispute{col 20}{c |}      Coef.{col 32}   Std. Err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% Con{col 73}f. Interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
milinst_challenger {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0454833{col 32}{space 2} .0185746{col 43}{space 1}   -2.45{col 52}{space 3}0.014{col 60}{space 4}-.0818889{col 73}{space 3}-.0090777
{txt}{space 10}pchaloff {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2978739{col 32}{space 2} .0482895{col 43}{space 1}    6.17{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .2032282{col 73}{space 3} .3925196
{txt}{space 10}pchalneu {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .4044335{col 32}{space 2}  .040226{col 43}{space 1}   10.05{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}  .325592{col 73}{space 3}  .483275
{txt}{space 7}ln_distance {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.4077249{col 32}{space 2}  .011371{col 43}{space 1}  -35.86{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.4300117{col 73}{space 3}-.3854381
{txt}{space 14}jdem {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} -.107419{col 32}{space 2}  .046274{col 43}{space 1}   -2.32{col 52}{space 3}0.020{col 60}{space 4}-.1981143{col 73}{space 3}-.0167236
{txt}{space 10}s_un_glo {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.5726489{col 32}{space 2} .0617875{col 43}{space 1}   -9.27{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.6937502{col 73}{space 3}-.4515476
{txt}{space 10}peaceyrs {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0436711{col 32}{space 2} .0021427{col 43}{space 1}  -20.38{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.0478708{col 73}{space 3}-.0394714
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0006793{col 32}{space 2} .0000417{col 43}{space 1}   16.31{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .0005977{col 73}{space 3} .0007609
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-2.78e-06{col 32}{space 2} 2.10e-07{col 43}{space 1}  -13.28{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-3.19e-06{col 73}{space 3}-2.37e-06
{txt}{space 13}_cons {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} 1.109011{col 32}{space 2} .1109402{col 43}{space 1}   10.00{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .8915724{col 73}{space 3}  1.32645
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_challenger allies_s_challenger allytarg_win_cXallies_s milinst_challenger pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6074.9012}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5617.732}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4943.9679}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4937.9724}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4937.9618}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4937.9618}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    509946
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2273.88
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4937.9618{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1872

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                dispute{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_challenger {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.853046{col 37}{space 2} .2718414{col 48}{space 1}   -6.82{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-2.385846{col 78}{space 3}-1.320247
{txt}{space 4}allies_s_challenger {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.285142{col 37}{space 2} .2655298{col 48}{space 1}   -8.61{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-2.805571{col 78}{space 3}-1.764713
{txt}allytarg_win_cXallies_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.445644{col 37}{space 2} .2981731{col 48}{space 1}    4.85{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .8612355{col 78}{space 3} 2.030052
{txt}{space 5}milinst_challenger {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0471666{col 37}{space 2}  .018688{col 48}{space 1}   -2.52{col 57}{space 3}0.012{col 65}{space 4}-.0837944{col 78}{space 3}-.0105387
{txt}{space 15}pchaloff {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1738999{col 37}{space 2} .0510994{col 48}{space 1}    3.40{col 57}{space 3}0.001{col 65}{space 4}  .073747{col 78}{space 3} .2740528
{txt}{space 15}pchalneu {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3004732{col 37}{space 2} .0432322{col 48}{space 1}    6.95{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2157397{col 78}{space 3} .3852067
{txt}{space 12}ln_distance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.3924051{col 37}{space 2} .0115157{col 48}{space 1}  -34.08{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4149754{col 78}{space 3}-.3698347
{txt}{space 19}jdem {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1014498{col 37}{space 2} .0468045{col 48}{space 1}   -2.17{col 57}{space 3}0.030{col 65}{space 4} -.193185{col 78}{space 3}-.0097146
{txt}{space 15}s_un_glo {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.6672307{col 37}{space 2}  .060094{col 48}{space 1}  -11.10{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.7850127{col 78}{space 3}-.5494486
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0412866{col 37}{space 2} .0021798{col 48}{space 1}  -18.94{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0455589{col 78}{space 3}-.0370142
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0006551{col 37}{space 2} .0000422{col 48}{space 1}   15.51{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0005723{col 78}{space 3} .0007379
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 37}{space 2} 2.13e-07{col 48}{space 1}  -12.75{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-3.13e-06{col 78}{space 3}-2.29e-06
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 3.559624{col 37}{space 2} .2647756{col 48}{space 1}   13.44{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 3.040673{col 78}{space 3} 4.078575
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop allytarg_win_cXallies_s
{txt}
{com}.                 
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A7: squared and cubed term of the capabilities measure 
. 
.         gen allytarg_sq=(allytarg_win)^2
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen allytarg_cb=(allytarg_win)^3
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allytarg_sq allytarg_cb pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6943.7321}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6525.2404}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6521.0862}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6521.0831}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6521.0831}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2776.79
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6521.0831{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1755

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.740654{col 26}{space 2}    .6821{col 37}{space 1}   -2.55{col 46}{space 3}0.011{col 54}{space 4}-3.077545{col 67}{space 3}-.4037627
{txt}{space 1}allytarg_sq {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.681915{col 26}{space 2} 1.320644{col 37}{space 1}    3.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.093501{col 67}{space 3} 7.270329
{txt}{space 1}allytarg_cb {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.443881{col 26}{space 2}  .744822{col 37}{space 1}   -4.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-4.903705{col 67}{space 3}-1.984057
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .181339{col 26}{space 2} .0435696{col 37}{space 1}    4.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0959441{col 67}{space 3} .2667339
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3356117{col 26}{space 2} .0367608{col 37}{space 1}    9.13{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2635618{col 67}{space 3} .4076616
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3925832{col 26}{space 2}  .010002{col 37}{space 1}  -39.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4121867{col 67}{space 3}-.3729797
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0188309{col 26}{space 2} .0363394{col 37}{space 1}   -0.52{col 46}{space 3}0.604{col 54}{space 4}-.0900549{col 67}{space 3} .0523931
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4410162{col 26}{space 2}  .053865{col 37}{space 1}   -8.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5465897{col 67}{space 3}-.3354427
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0439894{col 26}{space 2} .0019243{col 37}{space 1}  -22.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0477609{col 67}{space 3}-.0402178
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006863{col 26}{space 2} .0000377{col 37}{space 1}   18.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006125{col 67}{space 3} .0007601
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.85e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.22e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.48e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.223092{col 26}{space 2} .1369406{col 37}{space 1}    8.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9546935{col 67}{space 3} 1.491491
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allytarg_sq allytarg_cb allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7109.2339}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6437.7388}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6431.8674}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6431.8601}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6431.8601}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}13{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2955.24
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6431.8601{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1868

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.006417{col 35}{space 2}  .772071{col 46}{space 1}   -3.89{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-4.519649{col 76}{space 3}-1.493186
{txt}{space 10}allytarg_sq {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 5.488523{col 35}{space 2}  1.34253{col 46}{space 1}    4.09{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.857212{col 76}{space 3} 8.119834
{txt}{space 10}allytarg_cb {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.807156{col 35}{space 2} .7559725{col 46}{space 1}   -5.04{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-5.288835{col 76}{space 3}-2.325477
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.438602{col 35}{space 2} .2523142{col 46}{space 1}   -5.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.933128{col 76}{space 3}-.9440749
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .7684796{col 35}{space 2} .2850971{col 46}{space 1}    2.70{col 55}{space 3}0.007{col 63}{space 4} .2096996{col 76}{space 3}  1.32726
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1508829{col 35}{space 2} .0443726{col 46}{space 1}    3.40{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4} .0639142{col 76}{space 3} .2378516
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3163297{col 35}{space 2} .0376588{col 46}{space 1}    8.40{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2425198{col 76}{space 3} .3901396
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3933671{col 35}{space 2} .0099629{col 46}{space 1}  -39.48{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4128941{col 76}{space 3}-.3738401
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.018819{col 35}{space 2} .0362908{col 46}{space 1}   -0.52{col 55}{space 3}0.604{col 63}{space 4}-.0899477{col 76}{space 3} .0523097
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4430109{col 35}{space 2}  .053192{col 46}{space 1}   -8.33{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5472653{col 76}{space 3}-.3387565
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0418503{col 35}{space 2} .0019411{col 46}{space 1}  -21.56{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0456548{col 76}{space 3}-.0380459
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006607{col 35}{space 2} .0000378{col 46}{space 1}   17.46{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005866{col 76}{space 3} .0007349
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.76e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.45{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.13e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.39e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.624288{col 35}{space 2} .2753549{col 46}{space 1}    9.53{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.084602{col 76}{space 3} 3.163974
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allytarg_sq allytarg_cb allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6996.4603}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6322.1435}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6316.3834}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6316.3761}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6316.3761}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}14{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2860.31
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6316.3761{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1846

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.757708{col 35}{space 2} .7947241{col 46}{space 1}   -3.47{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4}-4.315339{col 76}{space 3}-1.200078
{txt}{space 10}allytarg_sq {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 5.020562{col 35}{space 2} 1.380803{col 46}{space 1}    3.64{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.314237{col 76}{space 3} 7.726887
{txt}{space 10}allytarg_cb {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-3.548644{col 35}{space 2} .7755324{col 46}{space 1}   -4.58{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -5.06866{col 76}{space 3}-2.028628
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.439083{col 35}{space 2} .2557652{col 46}{space 1}   -5.63{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.940374{col 76}{space 3}-.9377926
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .7584353{col 35}{space 2} .2877765{col 46}{space 1}    2.64{col 55}{space 3}0.008{col 63}{space 4} .1944038{col 76}{space 3} 1.322467
{txt}{space 14}milinst {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0242161{col 35}{space 2} .0170719{col 46}{space 1}   -1.42{col 55}{space 3}0.156{col 63}{space 4}-.0576764{col 76}{space 3} .0092443
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}   .15433{col 35}{space 2} .0445474{col 46}{space 1}    3.46{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4} .0670187{col 76}{space 3} .2416413
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3197541{col 35}{space 2} .0377714{col 46}{space 1}    8.47{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2457236{col 76}{space 3} .3937846
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3881417{col 35}{space 2} .0100455{col 46}{space 1}  -38.64{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4078305{col 76}{space 3}-.3684528
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0184442{col 35}{space 2} .0362974{col 46}{space 1}   -0.51{col 55}{space 3}0.611{col 63}{space 4}-.0895858{col 76}{space 3} .0526973
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4362307{col 35}{space 2} .0540964{col 46}{space 1}   -8.06{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5422577{col 76}{space 3}-.3302037
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0414705{col 35}{space 2} .0019517{col 46}{space 1}  -21.25{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0452958{col 76}{space 3}-.0376452
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006559{col 35}{space 2} .0000381{col 46}{space 1}   17.23{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005813{col 76}{space 3} .0007305
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.74e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.92e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.26{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.12e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.37e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.606404{col 35}{space 2} .2863845{col 46}{space 1}    9.10{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.045101{col 76}{space 3} 3.167707
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop allytarg_sq allytarg_cb
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A8: capabilities of the strongest alliance 
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_strongest pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6971.2608}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6559.1351}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6555.1532}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6555.1501}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6555.1501}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2708.66
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6555.1501{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1712

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}               dispute{col 24}{c |}      Coef.{col 36}   Std. Err.{col 48}      z{col 56}   P>|z|{col 64}     [95% Con{col 77}f. Interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_strongest {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.5021504{col 36}{space 2} .0460264{col 47}{space 1}  -10.91{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5923605{col 77}{space 3}-.4119403
{txt}{space 14}pchaloff {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1990976{col 36}{space 2} .0433752{col 47}{space 1}    4.59{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .1140838{col 77}{space 3} .2841113
{txt}{space 14}pchalneu {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3349213{col 36}{space 2}  .036698{col 47}{space 1}    9.13{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2629946{col 77}{space 3}  .406848
{txt}{space 11}ln_distance {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.4016899{col 36}{space 2} .0099221{col 47}{space 1}  -40.48{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.4211368{col 77}{space 3} -.382243
{txt}{space 18}jdem {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0367692{col 36}{space 2} .0362211{col 47}{space 1}   -1.02{col 56}{space 3}0.310{col 64}{space 4}-.1077613{col 77}{space 3}  .034223
{txt}{space 14}s_un_glo {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.461696{col 36}{space 2} .0537111{col 47}{space 1}   -8.60{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5669679{col 77}{space 3}-.3564241
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  -.04369{col 36}{space 2} .0019212{col 47}{space 1}  -22.74{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.0474556{col 77}{space 3}-.0399245
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0006758{col 36}{space 2} .0000375{col 47}{space 1}   18.01{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .0006023{col 77}{space 3} .0007494
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-2.79e-06{col 36}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 47}{space 1}  -14.75{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-3.16e-06{col 77}{space 3}-2.42e-06
{txt}{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 1.386708{col 36}{space 2} .1025074{col 47}{space 1}   13.53{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 1.185797{col 77}{space 3} 1.587619
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_win_sXallies_s=allytarg_win_strongest*allies_s
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute allytarg_win_strongest allies_s allytarg_win_sXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7179.9142}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6465.4486}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6459.9976}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6459.9922}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6459.9922}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2898.97
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6459.9922{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1833

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                dispute{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 1}allytarg_win_strongest {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.452752{col 37}{space 2} .2409329{col 48}{space 1}   -6.03{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.924972{col 78}{space 3} -.980532
{txt}{space 15}allies_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.645025{col 37}{space 2} .2335081{col 48}{space 1}   -7.04{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-2.102692{col 78}{space 3}-1.187358
{txt}allytarg_win_sXallies_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .9978125{col 37}{space 2} .2634745{col 48}{space 1}    3.79{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .4814119{col 78}{space 3} 1.514213
{txt}{space 15}pchaloff {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1652206{col 37}{space 2} .0442941{col 48}{space 1}    3.73{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0784058{col 78}{space 3} .2520355
{txt}{space 15}pchalneu {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3149584{col 37}{space 2} .0376174{col 48}{space 1}    8.37{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2412297{col 78}{space 3} .3886871
{txt}{space 12}ln_distance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4020039{col 37}{space 2} .0098863{col 48}{space 1}  -40.66{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4213808{col 78}{space 3} -.382627
{txt}{space 19}jdem {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0336187{col 37}{space 2} .0362027{col 48}{space 1}   -0.93{col 57}{space 3}0.353{col 65}{space 4}-.1045747{col 78}{space 3} .0373374
{txt}{space 15}s_un_glo {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4587281{col 37}{space 2} .0530424{col 48}{space 1}   -8.65{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.5626892{col 78}{space 3} -.354767
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0415854{col 37}{space 2} .0019383{col 48}{space 1}  -21.45{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0453844{col 78}{space 3}-.0377864
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0006515{col 37}{space 2} .0000377{col 48}{space 1}   17.27{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0005776{col 78}{space 3} .0007254
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 37}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 48}{space 1}  -14.26{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 78}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 2.884956{col 37}{space 2} .2286441{col 48}{space 1}   12.62{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 2.436822{col 78}{space 3} 3.333091
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
.         
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_strongest allies_s allytarg_win_sXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7066.8435}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6347.5851}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6342.2524}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6342.247}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6342.247}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2808.57
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6342.247{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1813

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                dispute{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 1}allytarg_win_strongest {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.464141{col 37}{space 2} .2425763{col 48}{space 1}   -6.04{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.939582{col 78}{space 3}-.9886998
{txt}{space 15}allies_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.673375{col 37}{space 2} .2368535{col 48}{space 1}   -7.07{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-2.137599{col 78}{space 3}-1.209151
{txt}allytarg_win_sXallies_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.012145{col 37}{space 2} .2661526{col 48}{space 1}    3.80{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .4904958{col 78}{space 3} 1.533795
{txt}{space 16}milinst {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0330446{col 37}{space 2} .0169063{col 48}{space 1}   -1.95{col 57}{space 3}0.051{col 65}{space 4}-.0661803{col 78}{space 3} .0000911
{txt}{space 15}pchaloff {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1696457{col 37}{space 2}  .044476{col 48}{space 1}    3.81{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0824744{col 78}{space 3}  .256817
{txt}{space 15}pchalneu {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3186257{col 37}{space 2} .0377491{col 48}{space 1}    8.44{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2446388{col 78}{space 3} .3926126
{txt}{space 12}ln_distance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.3967735{col 37}{space 2} .0099675{col 48}{space 1}  -39.81{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4163095{col 78}{space 3}-.3772374
{txt}{space 19}jdem {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0301237{col 37}{space 2} .0362226{col 48}{space 1}   -0.83{col 57}{space 3}0.406{col 65}{space 4}-.1011187{col 78}{space 3} .0408712
{txt}{space 15}s_un_glo {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4584443{col 37}{space 2} .0539111{col 48}{space 1}   -8.50{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.5641081{col 78}{space 3}-.3527804
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0411976{col 37}{space 2} .0019487{col 48}{space 1}  -21.14{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0450171{col 78}{space 3}-.0373782
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0006463{col 37}{space 2} .0000379{col 48}{space 1}   17.04{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .000572{col 78}{space 3} .0007206
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.69e-06{col 37}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 48}{space 1}  -14.06{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-3.06e-06{col 78}{space 3}-2.31e-06
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 2.942748{col 37}{space 2}  .238241{col 48}{space 1}   12.35{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 2.475805{col 78}{space 3} 3.409692
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop allytarg_win_sXallies_s
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A9: capabilities of the strongest ally 
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_strongest_ally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6964.5182}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6562.7745}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6558.8044}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6558.8014}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6558.8014}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2701.36
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6558.8014{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1708

{txt}{hline 28}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                    dispute{col 29}{c |}      Coef.{col 41}   Std. Err.{col 53}      z{col 61}   P>|z|{col 69}     [95% Con{col 82}f. Interval]
{hline 28}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_strongest_ally {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.4309022{col 41}{space 2} .0414983{col 52}{space 1}  -10.38{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.5122374{col 82}{space 3}-.3495671
{txt}{space 19}pchaloff {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}    .2076{col 41}{space 2} .0431873{col 52}{space 1}    4.81{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .1229543{col 82}{space 3} .2922456
{txt}{space 19}pchalneu {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .3396891{col 41}{space 2}  .036526{col 52}{space 1}    9.30{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .2680994{col 82}{space 3} .4112789
{txt}{space 16}ln_distance {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} -.400133{col 41}{space 2} .0099458{col 52}{space 1}  -40.23{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.4196265{col 82}{space 3}-.3806395
{txt}{space 23}jdem {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.0283522{col 41}{space 2} .0362249{col 52}{space 1}   -0.78{col 61}{space 3}0.434{col 69}{space 4}-.0993517{col 82}{space 3} .0426472
{txt}{space 19}s_un_glo {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.4555608{col 41}{space 2} .0540601{col 52}{space 1}   -8.43{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.5615167{col 82}{space 3} -.349605
{txt}{space 19}peaceyrs {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.0439741{col 41}{space 2} .0019189{col 52}{space 1}  -22.92{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.0477351{col 82}{space 3}-.0402132
{txt}{space 18}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .0006826{col 41}{space 2} .0000375{col 52}{space 1}   18.18{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}  .000609{col 82}{space 3} .0007561
{txt}{space 18}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-2.83e-06{col 41}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 52}{space 1}  -14.93{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-3.20e-06{col 82}{space 3}-2.46e-06
{txt}{space 22}_cons {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} 1.292178{col 41}{space 2} .1003047{col 52}{space 1}   12.88{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} 1.095585{col 82}{space 3} 1.488772
{txt}{hline 28}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_win_saXallies_s=allytarg_win_strongest_ally*allies_s
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute allytarg_win_strongest_ally allies_s allytarg_win_saXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7184.4161}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6455.9321}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6450.6735}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6450.6687}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6450.6687}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2917.62
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6450.6687{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1844

{txt}{hline 28}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                    dispute{col 29}{c |}      Coef.{col 41}   Std. Err.{col 53}      z{col 61}   P>|z|{col 69}     [95% Con{col 82}f. Interval]
{hline 28}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_strongest_ally {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-1.638592{col 41}{space 2} .2341928{col 52}{space 1}   -7.00{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-2.097601{col 82}{space 3}-1.179582
{txt}{space 19}allies_s {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-1.878222{col 41}{space 2} .2221658{col 52}{space 1}   -8.45{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-2.313659{col 82}{space 3}-1.442785
{txt}{space 3}allytarg_win_saXallies_s {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} 1.227176{col 41}{space 2} .2531467{col 52}{space 1}    4.85{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .7310173{col 82}{space 3} 1.723334
{txt}{space 19}pchaloff {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .1634145{col 41}{space 2} .0443481{col 52}{space 1}    3.68{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .0764939{col 82}{space 3} .2503352
{txt}{space 19}pchalneu {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .3087463{col 41}{space 2}  .037663{col 52}{space 1}    8.20{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .2349282{col 82}{space 3} .3825644
{txt}{space 16}ln_distance {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.4002698{col 41}{space 2} .0099172{col 52}{space 1}  -40.36{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.4197072{col 82}{space 3}-.3808324
{txt}{space 23}jdem {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} -.025899{col 41}{space 2} .0362414{col 52}{space 1}   -0.71{col 61}{space 3}0.475{col 69}{space 4}-.0969309{col 82}{space 3} .0451329
{txt}{space 19}s_un_glo {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.4437922{col 41}{space 2} .0533865{col 52}{space 1}   -8.31{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.5484278{col 82}{space 3}-.3391567
{txt}{space 19}peaceyrs {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.0417639{col 41}{space 2} .0019379{col 52}{space 1}  -21.55{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.0455622{col 82}{space 3}-.0379656
{txt}{space 18}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .0006577{col 41}{space 2} .0000377{col 52}{space 1}   17.43{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .0005838{col 82}{space 3} .0007317
{txt}{space 18}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-2.74e-06{col 41}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 52}{space 1}  -14.43{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-3.12e-06{col 82}{space 3}-2.37e-06
{txt}{space 22}_cons {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} 3.034998{col 41}{space 2} .2219546{col 52}{space 1}   13.67{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} 2.599975{col 82}{space 3} 3.470021
{txt}{hline 28}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_strongest_ally allies_s allytarg_win_saXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7072.7613}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6338.3377}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6333.2202}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6333.2155}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6333.2155}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2826.64
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6333.2155{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1824

{txt}{hline 28}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                    dispute{col 29}{c |}      Coef.{col 41}   Std. Err.{col 53}      z{col 61}   P>|z|{col 69}     [95% Con{col 82}f. Interval]
{hline 28}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_strongest_ally {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-1.654635{col 41}{space 2} .2355411{col 52}{space 1}   -7.02{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-2.116287{col 82}{space 3}-1.192983
{txt}{space 19}allies_s {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-1.914647{col 41}{space 2} .2247493{col 52}{space 1}   -8.52{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-2.355148{col 82}{space 3}-1.474147
{txt}{space 3}allytarg_win_saXallies_s {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} 1.250058{col 41}{space 2}  .255143{col 52}{space 1}    4.90{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}  .749987{col 82}{space 3} 1.750129
{txt}{space 20}milinst {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.0320132{col 41}{space 2} .0170565{col 52}{space 1}   -1.88{col 61}{space 3}0.061{col 69}{space 4}-.0654433{col 82}{space 3} .0014169
{txt}{space 19}pchaloff {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .1683209{col 41}{space 2}   .04451{col 52}{space 1}    3.78{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .0810829{col 82}{space 3} .2555588
{txt}{space 19}pchalneu {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .3129549{col 41}{space 2} .0377791{col 52}{space 1}    8.28{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .2389093{col 82}{space 3} .3870005
{txt}{space 16}ln_distance {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.3951916{col 41}{space 2} .0100029{col 52}{space 1}  -39.51{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.4147969{col 82}{space 3}-.3755864
{txt}{space 23}jdem {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.0217713{col 41}{space 2}  .036255{col 52}{space 1}   -0.60{col 61}{space 3}0.548{col 69}{space 4}-.0928298{col 82}{space 3} .0492872
{txt}{space 19}s_un_glo {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.4450985{col 41}{space 2} .0542442{col 52}{space 1}   -8.21{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.5514152{col 82}{space 3}-.3387818
{txt}{space 19}peaceyrs {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-.0413571{col 41}{space 2} .0019481{col 52}{space 1}  -21.23{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-.0451753{col 82}{space 3} -.037539
{txt}{space 18}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} .0006522{col 41}{space 2} .0000379{col 52}{space 1}   17.19{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4} .0005778{col 82}{space 3} .0007266
{txt}{space 18}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 41}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 52}{space 1}  -14.23{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}-3.10e-06{col 82}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 22}_cons {c |}{col 29}{res}{space 2} 3.096708{col 41}{space 2} .2314265{col 52}{space 1}   13.38{col 61}{space 3}0.000{col 69}{space 4}  2.64312{col 82}{space 3} 3.550295
{txt}{hline 28}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop allytarg_win_saXallies_s
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A10: including capabilities of the potential challenger's offensive allies 
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute off_allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6982.4945}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6570.3673}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6566.417}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6566.414}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6566.414}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2686.13
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6566.414{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1698

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         dispute{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
off_allytarg_win {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.446952{col 30}{space 2} .0466161{col 41}{space 1}   -9.59{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.5383178{col 71}{space 3}-.3555861
{txt}{space 8}pchaloff {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}   .11086{col 30}{space 2}  .045819{col 41}{space 1}    2.42{col 50}{space 3}0.016{col 58}{space 4} .0210564{col 71}{space 3} .2006635
{txt}{space 8}pchalneu {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .3594311{col 30}{space 2} .0360562{col 41}{space 1}    9.97{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .2887621{col 71}{space 3}    .4301
{txt}{space 5}ln_distance {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4013726{col 30}{space 2} .0099102{col 41}{space 1}  -40.50{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.4207962{col 71}{space 3} -.381949
{txt}{space 12}jdem {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0370548{col 30}{space 2} .0361995{col 41}{space 1}   -1.02{col 50}{space 3}0.306{col 58}{space 4}-.1080044{col 71}{space 3} .0338949
{txt}{space 8}s_un_glo {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4743702{col 30}{space 2}  .053649{col 41}{space 1}   -8.84{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.5795203{col 71}{space 3}  -.36922
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} -.043705{col 30}{space 2}   .00192{col 41}{space 1}  -22.76{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.0474681{col 71}{space 3}-.0399419
{txt}{space 7}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0006749{col 30}{space 2} .0000375{col 41}{space 1}   18.00{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0006014{col 71}{space 3} .0007484
{txt}{space 7}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-2.79e-06{col 30}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 41}{space 1}  -14.74{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-3.16e-06{col 71}{space 3}-2.41e-06
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 1.345821{col 30}{space 2} .1026926{col 41}{space 1}   13.11{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} 1.144547{col 71}{space 3} 1.547094
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_win_offXallies_s=off_allytarg_win*allies_s
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute off_allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_win_offXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7139.8591}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6481.0228}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6475.2236}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6475.2165}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6475.2165}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2868.53
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6475.2165{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1813

{txt}{hline 26}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                  dispute{col 27}{c |}      Coef.{col 39}   Std. Err.{col 51}      z{col 59}   P>|z|{col 67}     [95% Con{col 80}f. Interval]
{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}off_allytarg_win {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-1.116046{col 39}{space 2} .2295025{col 50}{space 1}   -4.86{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.565862{col 80}{space 3}-.6662292
{txt}{space 17}allies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-1.362267{col 39}{space 2} .2200712{col 50}{space 1}   -6.19{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.793599{col 80}{space 3}-.9309352
{txt}allytarg_win_offXallies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .6852525{col 39}{space 2} .2494632{col 50}{space 1}    2.75{col 59}{space 3}0.006{col 67}{space 4} .1963136{col 80}{space 3} 1.174191
{txt}{space 17}pchaloff {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .0580135{col 39}{space 2} .0470185{col 50}{space 1}    1.23{col 59}{space 3}0.217{col 67}{space 4} -.034141{col 80}{space 3}  .150168
{txt}{space 17}pchalneu {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .3458964{col 39}{space 2}  .036775{col 50}{space 1}    9.41{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .2738188{col 80}{space 3} .4179741
{txt}{space 14}ln_distance {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.4029907{col 39}{space 2} .0098531{col 50}{space 1}  -40.90{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.4223024{col 80}{space 3} -.383679
{txt}{space 21}jdem {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0343713{col 39}{space 2} .0361824{col 50}{space 1}   -0.95{col 59}{space 3}0.342{col 67}{space 4}-.1052875{col 80}{space 3} .0365449
{txt}{space 17}s_un_glo {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.4754059{col 39}{space 2} .0528816{col 50}{space 1}   -8.99{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} -.579052{col 80}{space 3}-.3717598
{txt}{space 17}peaceyrs {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0416431{col 39}{space 2} .0019365{col 50}{space 1}  -21.50{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.0454385{col 80}{space 3}-.0378477
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .0006511{col 39}{space 2} .0000377{col 50}{space 1}   17.28{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .0005772{col 80}{space 3} .0007249
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-2.70e-06{col 39}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 50}{space 1}  -14.25{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 80}{space 3}-2.33e-06
{txt}{space 20}_cons {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} 2.601703{col 39}{space 2} .2204577{col 50}{space 1}   11.80{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} 2.169614{col 80}{space 3} 3.033792
{txt}{hline 26}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute off_allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_win_offXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7020.5857}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6363.0764}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6357.4099}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6357.4027}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6357.4027}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2778.26
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6357.4027{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1793

{txt}{hline 26}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                  dispute{col 27}{c |}      Coef.{col 39}   Std. Err.{col 51}      z{col 59}   P>|z|{col 67}     [95% Con{col 80}f. Interval]
{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}off_allytarg_win {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-1.121459{col 39}{space 2} .2309575{col 50}{space 1}   -4.86{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.574127{col 80}{space 3}-.6687907
{txt}{space 17}allies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-1.388066{col 39}{space 2} .2230588{col 50}{space 1}   -6.22{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.825253{col 80}{space 3}-.9508788
{txt}allytarg_win_offXallies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .6962074{col 39}{space 2} .2518151{col 50}{space 1}    2.76{col 59}{space 3}0.006{col 67}{space 4} .2026588{col 80}{space 3} 1.189756
{txt}{space 18}milinst {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}   -.0358{col 39}{space 2} .0168426{col 50}{space 1}   -2.13{col 59}{space 3}0.034{col 67}{space 4} -.068811{col 80}{space 3}-.0027891
{txt}{space 17}pchaloff {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .0639426{col 39}{space 2} .0474054{col 50}{space 1}    1.35{col 59}{space 3}0.177{col 67}{space 4}-.0289703{col 80}{space 3} .1568554
{txt}{space 17}pchalneu {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .3500438{col 39}{space 2} .0368732{col 50}{space 1}    9.49{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .2777737{col 80}{space 3}  .422314
{txt}{space 14}ln_distance {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} -.398039{col 39}{space 2} .0099343{col 50}{space 1}  -40.07{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.4175099{col 80}{space 3}-.3785681
{txt}{space 21}jdem {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0302869{col 39}{space 2} .0362024{col 50}{space 1}   -0.84{col 59}{space 3}0.403{col 67}{space 4}-.1012424{col 80}{space 3} .0406686
{txt}{space 17}s_un_glo {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.4772817{col 39}{space 2} .0537138{col 50}{space 1}   -8.89{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.5825587{col 80}{space 3}-.3720047
{txt}{space 17}peaceyrs {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0412835{col 39}{space 2} .0019469{col 50}{space 1}  -21.20{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.0450993{col 80}{space 3}-.0374676
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .0006462{col 39}{space 2} .0000379{col 50}{space 1}   17.06{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .0005719{col 80}{space 3} .0007204
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-2.68e-06{col 39}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 50}{space 1}  -14.06{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-3.06e-06{col 80}{space 3}-2.31e-06
{txt}{space 20}_cons {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} 2.664597{col 39}{space 2} .2298928{col 50}{space 1}   11.59{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} 2.214015{col 80}{space 3} 3.115178
{txt}{hline 26}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.                 
.         drop allytarg_win_offXallies_s
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A11: the natural log of the capabilities measure 
. 
.         gen ln_allytarg_win=ln(allytarg_win+1)
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute ln_allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6977.1784}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6568.4988}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6564.5608}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6564.5577}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6564.5577}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2689.84
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6564.5577{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1700

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}        dispute{col 17}{c |}      Coef.{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
ln_allytarg_win {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.7277745{col 29}{space 2} .0733214{col 40}{space 1}   -9.93{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.8714819{col 70}{space 3}-.5840672
{txt}{space 7}pchaloff {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .2068152{col 29}{space 2} .0432715{col 40}{space 1}    4.78{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .1220047{col 70}{space 3} .2916257
{txt}{space 7}pchalneu {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .341553{col 29}{space 2} .0366355{col 40}{space 1}    9.32{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .2697486{col 70}{space 3} .4133573
{txt}{space 4}ln_distance {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.4022166{col 29}{space 2} .0099089{col 40}{space 1}  -40.59{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.4216377{col 70}{space 3}-.3827955
{txt}{space 11}jdem {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0383217{col 29}{space 2} .0361906{col 40}{space 1}   -1.06{col 49}{space 3}0.290{col 57}{space 4}-.1092539{col 70}{space 3} .0326105
{txt}{space 7}s_un_glo {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.470515{col 29}{space 2} .0536412{col 40}{space 1}   -8.77{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.5756499{col 70}{space 3}-.3653802
{txt}{space 7}peaceyrs {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0436205{col 29}{space 2} .0019199{col 40}{space 1}  -22.72{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-.0473833{col 70}{space 3}-.0398576
{txt}{space 6}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0006734{col 29}{space 2} .0000375{col 40}{space 1}   17.96{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} .0005999{col 70}{space 3} .0007469
{txt}{space 6}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-2.78e-06{col 29}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 40}{space 1}  -14.70{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}-3.15e-06{col 70}{space 3}-2.41e-06
{txt}{space 10}_cons {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.410887{col 29}{space 2} .1047692{col 40}{space 1}   13.47{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4} 1.205543{col 70}{space 3}  1.61623
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_win_lnXallies_s=ln_allytarg_win*allies_s
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute ln_allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_win_lnXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7174.4913}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6476.7735}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6471.1106}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6471.1042}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6471.1042}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2876.75
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6471.1042{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1819

{txt}{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                 dispute{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}ln_allytarg_win {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.157288{col 38}{space 2}  .402074{col 49}{space 1}   -5.37{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-2.945339{col 79}{space 3}-1.369238
{txt}{space 16}allies_s {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-1.696954{col 38}{space 2} .2758178{col 49}{space 1}   -6.15{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-2.237547{col 79}{space 3}-1.156361
{txt}allytarg_win_lnXallies_s {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 1.483251{col 38}{space 2}  .437659{col 49}{space 1}    3.39{col 58}{space 3}0.001{col 66}{space 4} .6254556{col 79}{space 3} 2.341047
{txt}{space 16}pchaloff {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .1735029{col 38}{space 2} .0441383{col 49}{space 1}    3.93{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0869935{col 79}{space 3} .2600123
{txt}{space 16}pchalneu {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .3228174{col 38}{space 2} .0375028{col 49}{space 1}    8.61{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .2493134{col 79}{space 3} .3963215
{txt}{space 13}ln_distance {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.4031079{col 38}{space 2} .0098674{col 49}{space 1}  -40.85{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.4224476{col 79}{space 3}-.3837682
{txt}{space 20}jdem {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0350229{col 38}{space 2}   .03617{col 49}{space 1}   -0.97{col 58}{space 3}0.333{col 66}{space 4}-.1059147{col 79}{space 3} .0358689
{txt}{space 16}s_un_glo {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.4687681{col 38}{space 2} .0529258{col 49}{space 1}   -8.86{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.5725008{col 79}{space 3}-.3650353
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} -.041572{col 38}{space 2} .0019367{col 49}{space 1}  -21.46{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} -.045368{col 79}{space 3}-.0377761
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}   .00065{col 38}{space 2} .0000377{col 49}{space 1}   17.25{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0005761{col 79}{space 3} .0007238
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.70e-06{col 38}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 49}{space 1}  -14.23{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 79}{space 3}-2.33e-06
{txt}{space 19}_cons {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 2.974091{col 38}{space 2} .2657965{col 49}{space 1}   11.19{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} 2.453139{col 79}{space 3} 3.495042
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute ln_allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_win_lnXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7063.2929}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6358.7793}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6353.224}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6353.2175}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6353.2175}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2786.63
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6353.2175{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1799

{txt}{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                 dispute{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}ln_allytarg_win {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.175113{col 38}{space 2} .4056253{col 49}{space 1}   -5.36{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-2.970124{col 79}{space 3}-1.380102
{txt}{space 16}allies_s {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-1.728961{col 38}{space 2} .2799232{col 49}{space 1}   -6.18{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}  -2.2776{col 79}{space 3}-1.180322
{txt}allytarg_win_lnXallies_s {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 1.507919{col 38}{space 2} .4427616{col 49}{space 1}    3.41{col 58}{space 3}0.001{col 66}{space 4} .6401225{col 79}{space 3} 2.375716
{txt}{space 17}milinst {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0355672{col 38}{space 2} .0168362{col 49}{space 1}   -2.11{col 58}{space 3}0.035{col 66}{space 4}-.0685656{col 79}{space 3}-.0025688
{txt}{space 16}pchaloff {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .1782207{col 38}{space 2} .0443194{col 49}{space 1}    4.02{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0913564{col 79}{space 3} .2650851
{txt}{space 16}pchalneu {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .3269552{col 38}{space 2} .0376249{col 49}{space 1}    8.69{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .2532118{col 79}{space 3} .4006986
{txt}{space 13}ln_distance {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.3980963{col 38}{space 2} .0099475{col 49}{space 1}  -40.02{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.4175929{col 79}{space 3}-.3785996
{txt}{space 20}jdem {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0308995{col 38}{space 2} .0361925{col 49}{space 1}   -0.85{col 58}{space 3}0.393{col 66}{space 4}-.1018355{col 79}{space 3} .0400364
{txt}{space 16}s_un_glo {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.4703353{col 38}{space 2} .0537679{col 49}{space 1}   -8.75{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.5757184{col 79}{space 3}-.3649522
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0412016{col 38}{space 2} .0019472{col 49}{space 1}  -21.16{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.0450181{col 79}{space 3}-.0373852
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0006449{col 38}{space 2} .0000379{col 49}{space 1}   17.02{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0005707{col 79}{space 3} .0007192
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.68e-06{col 38}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 49}{space 1}  -14.03{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-3.05e-06{col 79}{space 3}-2.31e-06
{txt}{space 19}_cons {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 3.042473{col 38}{space 2} .2749208{col 49}{space 1}   11.07{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} 2.503638{col 79}{space 3} 3.581308
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop allytarg_win_lnXallies_s ln_allytarg_win
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A12: adjusted capabilities by distance to the target 
. 
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_adj pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7011.9998}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6511.2145}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6506.9086}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6506.9051}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6506.9051}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2805.15
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6506.9051{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1773

{txt}{hline 17}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         dispute{col 18}{c |}      Coef.{col 30}   Std. Err.{col 42}      z{col 50}   P>|z|{col 58}     [95% Con{col 71}f. Interval]
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win_adj {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.7385971{col 30}{space 2} .0480568{col 41}{space 1}  -15.37{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.8327868{col 71}{space 3}-.6444074
{txt}{space 8}pchaloff {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .1642643{col 30}{space 2}  .043995{col 41}{space 1}    3.73{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0780357{col 71}{space 3}  .250493
{txt}{space 8}pchalneu {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .2900543{col 30}{space 2} .0375902{col 41}{space 1}    7.72{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .2163787{col 71}{space 3} .3637298
{txt}{space 5}ln_distance {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.3838254{col 30}{space 2} .0100642{col 41}{space 1}  -38.14{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.4035509{col 71}{space 3}-.3640999
{txt}{space 12}jdem {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0387402{col 30}{space 2} .0362842{col 41}{space 1}   -1.07{col 50}{space 3}0.286{col 58}{space 4}-.1098559{col 71}{space 3} .0323755
{txt}{space 8}s_un_glo {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.4435009{col 30}{space 2} .0538854{col 41}{space 1}   -8.23{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.5491144{col 71}{space 3}-.3378874
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-.0431622{col 30}{space 2} .0019294{col 41}{space 1}  -22.37{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-.0469437{col 71}{space 3}-.0393806
{txt}{space 7}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} .0006695{col 30}{space 2} .0000376{col 41}{space 1}   17.79{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} .0005957{col 71}{space 3} .0007432
{txt}{space 7}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2}-2.77e-06{col 30}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 41}{space 1}  -14.60{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4}-3.14e-06{col 71}{space 3}-2.40e-06
{txt}{space 11}_cons {c |}{col 18}{res}{space 2} 1.456274{col 30}{space 2}  .100735{col 41}{space 1}   14.46{col 50}{space 3}0.000{col 58}{space 4} 1.258837{col 71}{space 3} 1.653711
{txt}{hline 17}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_win_adjXallies_s=allytarg_win_adj*allies_s
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute allytarg_win_adj allies_s allytarg_win_adjXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7193.5848}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6424.5412}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6418.6091}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6418.6028}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6418.6028}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2981.75
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6418.6028{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1885

{txt}{hline 26}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                  dispute{col 27}{c |}      Coef.{col 39}   Std. Err.{col 51}      z{col 59}   P>|z|{col 67}     [95% Con{col 80}f. Interval]
{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win_adj {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-1.523458{col 39}{space 2} .2251473{col 50}{space 1}   -6.77{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.964739{col 80}{space 3}-1.082178
{txt}{space 17}allies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-1.484858{col 39}{space 2} .2176063{col 50}{space 1}   -6.82{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.911358{col 80}{space 3}-1.058357
{txt}allytarg_win_adjXallies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .8580366{col 39}{space 2} .2484956{col 50}{space 1}    3.45{col 59}{space 3}0.001{col 67}{space 4} .3709942{col 80}{space 3} 1.345079
{txt}{space 17}pchaloff {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .1365207{col 39}{space 2} .0448355{col 50}{space 1}    3.04{col 59}{space 3}0.002{col 67}{space 4} .0486448{col 80}{space 3} .2243966
{txt}{space 17}pchalneu {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .2700384{col 39}{space 2} .0386106{col 50}{space 1}    6.99{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}  .194363{col 80}{space 3} .3457138
{txt}{space 14}ln_distance {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.3850116{col 39}{space 2} .0100181{col 50}{space 1}  -38.43{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.4046466{col 80}{space 3}-.3653766
{txt}{space 21}jdem {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0356347{col 39}{space 2} .0362696{col 50}{space 1}   -0.98{col 59}{space 3}0.326{col 67}{space 4}-.1067217{col 80}{space 3} .0354524
{txt}{space 17}s_un_glo {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.4540398{col 39}{space 2} .0531688{col 50}{space 1}   -8.54{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.5582487{col 80}{space 3}-.3498309
{txt}{space 17}peaceyrs {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0411353{col 39}{space 2} .0019441{col 50}{space 1}  -21.16{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.0449457{col 80}{space 3}-.0373248
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .0006457{col 39}{space 2} .0000378{col 50}{space 1}   17.09{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .0005716{col 80}{space 3} .0007198
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-2.69e-06{col 39}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 50}{space 1}  -14.13{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-3.06e-06{col 80}{space 3}-2.32e-06
{txt}{space 20}_cons {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} 2.791721{col 39}{space 2} .2150339{col 50}{space 1}   12.98{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} 2.370263{col 80}{space 3}  3.21318
{txt}{hline 26}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win_adj allies_s allytarg_win_adjXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7075.6085}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6310.3531}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6304.5975}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6304.5913}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6304.5913}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2883.88
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6304.5913{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1861

{txt}{hline 26}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                  dispute{col 27}{c |}      Coef.{col 39}   Std. Err.{col 51}      z{col 59}   P>|z|{col 67}     [95% Con{col 80}f. Interval]
{hline 26}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win_adj {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} -1.53708{col 39}{space 2} .2255434{col 50}{space 1}   -6.82{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.979137{col 80}{space 3}-1.095023
{txt}{space 17}allies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-1.520205{col 39}{space 2} .2198283{col 50}{space 1}   -6.92{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-1.951061{col 80}{space 3} -1.08935
{txt}allytarg_win_adjXallies_s {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .8840921{col 39}{space 2} .2499851{col 50}{space 1}    3.54{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .3941303{col 80}{space 3} 1.374054
{txt}{space 18}milinst {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0276914{col 39}{space 2} .0169447{col 50}{space 1}   -1.63{col 59}{space 3}0.102{col 67}{space 4}-.0609024{col 80}{space 3} .0055197
{txt}{space 17}pchaloff {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .1411301{col 39}{space 2} .0450092{col 50}{space 1}    3.14{col 59}{space 3}0.002{col 67}{space 4} .0529136{col 80}{space 3} .2293466
{txt}{space 17}pchalneu {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .2755075{col 39}{space 2}  .038726{col 50}{space 1}    7.11{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .1996058{col 80}{space 3} .3514092
{txt}{space 14}ln_distance {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.3803118{col 39}{space 2}  .010117{col 50}{space 1}  -37.59{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.4001407{col 80}{space 3}-.3604829
{txt}{space 21}jdem {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0331289{col 39}{space 2} .0363001{col 50}{space 1}   -0.91{col 59}{space 3}0.361{col 67}{space 4}-.1042756{col 80}{space 3} .0380179
{txt}{space 17}s_un_glo {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.4551578{col 39}{space 2} .0539412{col 50}{space 1}   -8.44{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.5608805{col 80}{space 3}-.3494351
{txt}{space 17}peaceyrs {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-.0407649{col 39}{space 2} .0019551{col 50}{space 1}  -20.85{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-.0445968{col 80}{space 3}-.0369329
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} .0006416{col 39}{space 2}  .000038{col 50}{space 1}   16.88{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} .0005671{col 80}{space 3} .0007162
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2}-2.68e-06{col 39}{space 2} 1.92e-07{col 50}{space 1}  -13.96{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4}-3.05e-06{col 80}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 20}_cons {c |}{col 27}{res}{space 2} 2.841012{col 39}{space 2} .2238902{col 50}{space 1}   12.69{col 59}{space 3}0.000{col 67}{space 4} 2.402195{col 80}{space 3} 3.279828
{txt}{hline 26}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
.         drop allytarg_win_adjXallies_s
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A13: average s-score of the strongest alliance 
. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s_strongest pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6969.9036}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6532.6482}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6528.7118}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6528.7088}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6528.7088}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2761.54
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6528.7088{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1746

{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}           dispute{col 20}{c |}      Coef.{col 32}   Std. Err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% Con{col 73}f. Interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allies_s_strongest {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.7056662{col 32}{space 2}  .052233{col 43}{space 1}  -13.51{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} -.808041{col 73}{space 3}-.6032915
{txt}{space 10}pchaloff {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2428139{col 32}{space 2} .0426401{col 43}{space 1}    5.69{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .1592409{col 73}{space 3} .3263869
{txt}{space 10}pchalneu {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3983474{col 32}{space 2} .0361165{col 43}{space 1}   11.03{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .3275603{col 73}{space 3} .4691344
{txt}{space 7}ln_distance {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.4073566{col 32}{space 2} .0097853{col 43}{space 1}  -41.63{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.4265355{col 73}{space 3}-.3881777
{txt}{space 14}jdem {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0371262{col 32}{space 2} .0360825{col 43}{space 1}   -1.03{col 52}{space 3}0.304{col 60}{space 4}-.1078465{col 73}{space 3} .0335941
{txt}{space 10}s_un_glo {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} -.523792{col 32}{space 2} .0525169{col 43}{space 1}   -9.97{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.6267232{col 73}{space 3}-.4208608
{txt}{space 10}peaceyrs {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0417656{col 32}{space 2} .0019247{col 43}{space 1}  -21.70{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.0455379{col 73}{space 3}-.0379933
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0006456{col 32}{space 2} .0000374{col 43}{space 1}   17.24{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} .0005722{col 73}{space 3}  .000719
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-2.67e-06{col 32}{space 2} 1.88e-07{col 43}{space 1}  -14.16{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-3.04e-06{col 73}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 13}_cons {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} 1.634503{col 32}{space 2} .1061945{col 43}{space 1}   15.39{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4} 1.426366{col 73}{space 3} 1.842641
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_winXallies_s_s=allytarg_win*allies_s_strongest
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s_strongest allytarg_winXallies_s_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7125.8245}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6471.0434}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6465.486}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6465.4801}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6465.4801}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2888.00
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6465.4801{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1826

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                dispute{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 11}allytarg_win {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.284598{col 37}{space 2} .2346074{col 48}{space 1}   -5.48{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} -1.74442{col 78}{space 3}-.8247758
{txt}{space 5}allies_s_strongest {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.471222{col 37}{space 2} .2289288{col 48}{space 1}   -6.43{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.919914{col 78}{space 3}-1.022529
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .8242081{col 37}{space 2}  .257452{col 48}{space 1}    3.20{col 57}{space 3}0.001{col 65}{space 4} .3196115{col 78}{space 3} 1.328805
{txt}{space 15}pchaloff {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1634772{col 37}{space 2} .0442244{col 48}{space 1}    3.70{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0767989{col 78}{space 3} .2501555
{txt}{space 15}pchalneu {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3192552{col 37}{space 2} .0375576{col 48}{space 1}    8.50{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2456436{col 78}{space 3} .3928669
{txt}{space 12}ln_distance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4039209{col 37}{space 2} .0099007{col 48}{space 1}  -40.80{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4233258{col 78}{space 3}-.3845159
{txt}{space 19}jdem {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.030708{col 37}{space 2} .0362174{col 48}{space 1}   -0.85{col 57}{space 3}0.397{col 65}{space 4}-.1016927{col 78}{space 3} .0402767
{txt}{space 15}s_un_glo {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4594575{col 37}{space 2} .0531251{col 48}{space 1}   -8.65{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.5635808{col 78}{space 3}-.3553343
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0416609{col 37}{space 2} .0019372{col 48}{space 1}  -21.51{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0454579{col 78}{space 3} -.037864
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0006533{col 37}{space 2} .0000377{col 48}{space 1}   17.33{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0005795{col 78}{space 3} .0007272
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 37}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 48}{space 1}  -14.31{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-3.09e-06{col 78}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 2.728138{col 37}{space 2} .2250055{col 48}{space 1}   12.12{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 2.287135{col 78}{space 3}  3.16914
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s_strongest allytarg_winXallies_s_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7008.6661}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6352.6843}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6347.247}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6347.2411}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6347.2411}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2798.58
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6347.2411{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1806

{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                dispute{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 11}allytarg_win {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -1.29494{col 37}{space 2} .2363555{col 48}{space 1}   -5.48{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.758188{col 78}{space 3} -.831692
{txt}{space 5}allies_s_strongest {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.504931{col 37}{space 2} .2325945{col 48}{space 1}   -6.47{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.960807{col 78}{space 3}-1.049054
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s_s {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .8403977{col 37}{space 2}  .260361{col 48}{space 1}    3.23{col 57}{space 3}0.001{col 65}{space 4} .3300996{col 78}{space 3} 1.350696
{txt}{space 16}milinst {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.038213{col 37}{space 2} .0168837{col 48}{space 1}   -2.26{col 57}{space 3}0.024{col 65}{space 4}-.0713043{col 78}{space 3}-.0051216
{txt}{space 15}pchaloff {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1682573{col 37}{space 2} .0444026{col 48}{space 1}    3.79{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0812298{col 78}{space 3} .2552847
{txt}{space 15}pchalneu {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3234263{col 37}{space 2} .0376837{col 48}{space 1}    8.58{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .2495676{col 78}{space 3} .3972849
{txt}{space 12}ln_distance {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.3988621{col 37}{space 2} .0099806{col 48}{space 1}  -39.96{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4184237{col 78}{space 3}-.3793005
{txt}{space 19}jdem {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0265571{col 37}{space 2} .0362361{col 48}{space 1}   -0.73{col 57}{space 3}0.464{col 65}{space 4}-.0975786{col 78}{space 3} .0444644
{txt}{space 15}s_un_glo {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4612699{col 37}{space 2} .0539774{col 48}{space 1}   -8.55{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.5670637{col 78}{space 3}-.3554761
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0412908{col 37}{space 2} .0019475{col 48}{space 1}  -21.20{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0451078{col 78}{space 3}-.0374738
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0006482{col 37}{space 2} .0000379{col 48}{space 1}   17.10{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0005739{col 78}{space 3} .0007225
{txt}{space 14}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-2.70e-06{col 37}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 48}{space 1}  -14.11{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 78}{space 3}-2.32e-06
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 2.803024{col 37}{space 2} .2352115{col 48}{space 1}   11.92{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 2.342018{col 78}{space 3} 3.264031
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop allytarg_winXallies_s_s
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A14: S calculation with UN voting data 
. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_UN pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6122.6214}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5270.845}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4876.4891}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -4872.526}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4872.5228}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4872.5228}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    519684
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2500.20
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4872.5228{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2042

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}allies_UN {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3643896{col 26}{space 2} .0459914{col 37}{space 1}   -7.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4545311{col 67}{space 3}-.2742481
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0096384{col 26}{space 2} .0620979{col 37}{space 1}   -0.16{col 46}{space 3}0.877{col 54}{space 4} -.131348{col 67}{space 3} .1120711
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4333222{col 26}{space 2} .0405633{col 37}{space 1}   10.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3538195{col 67}{space 3} .5128249
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5188985{col 26}{space 2} .0128718{col 37}{space 1}  -40.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5441268{col 67}{space 3}-.4936702
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0115697{col 26}{space 2} .0384954{col 37}{space 1}   -0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.764{col 54}{space 4}-.0870193{col 67}{space 3} .0638799
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.045466{col 26}{space 2} .0709688{col 37}{space 1}  -14.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.184562{col 67}{space 3}-.9063694
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0435243{col 26}{space 2} .0021753{col 37}{space 1}  -20.01{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0477879{col 67}{space 3}-.0392608
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006283{col 26}{space 2} .0000414{col 37}{space 1}   15.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005471{col 67}{space 3} .0007094
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.49e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.02e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -12.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.89e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.09e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.499493{col 26}{space 2} .1381632{col 37}{space 1}   18.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.228698{col 67}{space 3} 2.770288
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_winXallies_s_un=allytarg_win*allies_UN
{txt}(65783 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_UN allytarg_winXallies_s_un pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6122.6214}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-5251.3967}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -4837.354}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4832.9409}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4832.9365}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4832.9365}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    519684
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2579.37
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-4832.9365{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2106

{txt}{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                 dispute{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}allytarg_win {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.7866309{col 38}{space 2} .1649833{col 49}{space 1}   -4.77{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-1.109992{col 79}{space 3}-.4632696
{txt}{space 15}allies_UN {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.7185594{col 38}{space 2} .2013918{col 49}{space 1}   -3.57{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} -1.11328{col 79}{space 3}-.3238388
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s_un {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .3467294{col 38}{space 2}  .222888{col 49}{space 1}    1.56{col 58}{space 3}0.120{col 66}{space 4}-.0901231{col 79}{space 3} .7835818
{txt}{space 16}pchaloff {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0894053{col 38}{space 2} .0638631{col 49}{space 1}   -1.40{col 58}{space 3}0.162{col 66}{space 4}-.2145746{col 79}{space 3} .0357641
{txt}{space 16}pchalneu {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .3694181{col 38}{space 2} .0417929{col 49}{space 1}    8.84{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .2875055{col 79}{space 3} .4513308
{txt}{space 13}ln_distance {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.5226408{col 38}{space 2} .0129764{col 49}{space 1}  -40.28{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.5480741{col 79}{space 3}-.4972075
{txt}{space 20}jdem {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0058003{col 38}{space 2} .0386851{col 49}{space 1}   -0.15{col 58}{space 3}0.881{col 66}{space 4}-.0816217{col 79}{space 3} .0700212
{txt}{space 16}s_un_glo {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.9912926{col 38}{space 2} .0710849{col 49}{space 1}  -13.95{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-1.130616{col 79}{space 3}-.8519688
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} -.043209{col 38}{space 2} .0021827{col 49}{space 1}  -19.80{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} -.047487{col 79}{space 3}-.0389309
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0006308{col 38}{space 2} .0000416{col 49}{space 1}   15.17{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0005493{col 79}{space 3} .0007124
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.51e-06{col 38}{space 2} 2.04e-07{col 49}{space 1}  -12.35{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-2.91e-06{col 79}{space 3}-2.12e-06
{txt}{space 19}_cons {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 3.217422{col 38}{space 2} .2026302{col 49}{space 1}   15.88{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} 2.820274{col 79}{space 3}  3.61457
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_UN allytarg_winXallies_s_un milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:  -5974.15}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -5132.056}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4729.8415}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-4725.3699}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -4725.365}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -4725.365}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    507354
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2497.57
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -4725.365{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2090

{txt}{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                 dispute{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}allytarg_win {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} -.781412{col 38}{space 2} .1655846{col 49}{space 1}   -4.72{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-1.105952{col 79}{space 3}-.4568722
{txt}{space 15}allies_UN {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.6412383{col 38}{space 2} .2050985{col 49}{space 1}   -3.13{col 58}{space 3}0.002{col 66}{space 4}-1.043224{col 79}{space 3}-.2392526
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s_un {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .2646673{col 38}{space 2} .2267765{col 49}{space 1}    1.17{col 58}{space 3}0.243{col 66}{space 4}-.1798065{col 79}{space 3} .7091411
{txt}{space 17}milinst {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0728235{col 38}{space 2} .0217497{col 49}{space 1}    3.35{col 58}{space 3}0.001{col 66}{space 4} .0301949{col 79}{space 3} .1154521
{txt}{space 16}pchaloff {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0937769{col 38}{space 2} .0642239{col 49}{space 1}   -1.46{col 58}{space 3}0.144{col 66}{space 4}-.2196534{col 79}{space 3} .0320996
{txt}{space 16}pchalneu {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .3662171{col 38}{space 2} .0420907{col 49}{space 1}    8.70{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .2837208{col 79}{space 3} .4487134
{txt}{space 13}ln_distance {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.5141734{col 38}{space 2} .0131439{col 49}{space 1}  -39.12{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} -.539935{col 79}{space 3}-.4884118
{txt}{space 20}jdem {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0095319{col 38}{space 2}  .038799{col 49}{space 1}   -0.25{col 58}{space 3}0.806{col 66}{space 4}-.0855766{col 79}{space 3} .0665127
{txt}{space 16}s_un_glo {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.9512717{col 38}{space 2} .0724888{col 49}{space 1}  -13.12{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-1.093347{col 79}{space 3}-.8091962
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0427753{col 38}{space 2} .0022056{col 49}{space 1}  -19.39{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.0470982{col 79}{space 3}-.0384525
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0006285{col 38}{space 2}  .000042{col 49}{space 1}   14.97{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0005462{col 79}{space 3} .0007108
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.52e-06{col 38}{space 2} 2.05e-07{col 49}{space 1}  -12.28{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-2.92e-06{col 79}{space 3}-2.12e-06
{txt}{space 19}_cons {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 2.935445{col 38}{space 2} .2164343{col 49}{space 1}   13.56{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} 2.511242{col 79}{space 3} 3.359649
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         drop allytarg_winXallies_s_un
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A15: S calculation with Cohen's Kappa and alliance data 
. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_k1 pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6993.7977}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6571.2997}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6567.4686}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6567.4657}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6567.4657}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2684.03
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6567.4657{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1697

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}allies_k1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.290323{col 26}{space 2} .0314595{col 37}{space 1}   -9.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3519825{col 67}{space 3}-.2286635
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2537993{col 26}{space 2} .0424567{col 37}{space 1}    5.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1705857{col 67}{space 3} .3370129
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3978221{col 26}{space 2} .0358619{col 37}{space 1}   11.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .327534{col 67}{space 3} .4681102
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.411946{col 26}{space 2} .0098639{col 37}{space 1}  -41.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4312789{col 67}{space 3} -.392613
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0454071{col 26}{space 2} .0360805{col 37}{space 1}   -1.26{col 46}{space 3}0.208{col 54}{space 4}-.1161237{col 67}{space 3} .0253094
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.612942{col 26}{space 2} .0539133{col 37}{space 1}  -11.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7186102{col 67}{space 3}-.5072739
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0416713{col 26}{space 2}  .001921{col 37}{space 1}  -21.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0454364{col 67}{space 3}-.0379062
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000641{col 26}{space 2} .0000374{col 37}{space 1}   17.15{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005678{col 67}{space 3} .0007142
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.64e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.88e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.01e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.27e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.326321{col 26}{space 2} .1014753{col 37}{space 1}   13.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.127433{col 67}{space 3} 1.525209
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. * H3
. 
.         gen allytarg_winXallies_s_k1=allytarg_win*allies_k1
{txt}(35 missing values generated)

{com}.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_k1 allytarg_winXallies_s_k1 pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6983.588}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6526.6855}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6522.6052}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6522.602}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6522.602}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2773.75
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6522.602{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1753

{txt}{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                 dispute{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}allytarg_win {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} -.523546{col 38}{space 2} .0914583{col 49}{space 1}   -5.72{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} -.702801{col 79}{space 3}-.3442911
{txt}{space 15}allies_k1 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.3373061{col 38}{space 2} .0995724{col 49}{space 1}   -3.39{col 58}{space 3}0.001{col 66}{space 4}-.5324644{col 79}{space 3}-.1421477
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s_k1 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}  .080376{col 38}{space 2} .1159716{col 49}{space 1}    0.69{col 58}{space 3}0.488{col 66}{space 4}-.1469241{col 79}{space 3} .3076762
{txt}{space 16}pchaloff {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .1951823{col 38}{space 2} .0435009{col 49}{space 1}    4.49{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .1099222{col 79}{space 3} .2804424
{txt}{space 16}pchalneu {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .3365315{col 38}{space 2} .0369095{col 49}{space 1}    9.12{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .2641902{col 79}{space 3} .4088729
{txt}{space 13}ln_distance {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.4101488{col 38}{space 2} .0099414{col 49}{space 1}  -41.26{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.4296335{col 79}{space 3}-.3906641
{txt}{space 20}jdem {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0437694{col 38}{space 2}  .036273{col 49}{space 1}   -1.21{col 58}{space 3}0.228{col 66}{space 4}-.1148632{col 79}{space 3} .0273244
{txt}{space 16}s_un_glo {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.5560446{col 38}{space 2} .0543884{col 49}{space 1}  -10.22{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.6626439{col 79}{space 3}-.4494453
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0419193{col 38}{space 2} .0019318{col 49}{space 1}  -21.70{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.0457056{col 79}{space 3} -.038133
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}  .000652{col 38}{space 2} .0000376{col 49}{space 1}   17.34{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0005783{col 79}{space 3} .0007257
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.70e-06{col 38}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 49}{space 1}  -14.24{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 79}{space 3}-2.33e-06
{txt}{space 19}_cons {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 1.716082{col 38}{space 2} .1251078{col 49}{space 1}   13.72{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} 1.470875{col 79}{space 3} 1.961289
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_k1 allytarg_winXallies_s_k1 milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6857.4321}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6410.438}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6406.4886}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6406.4855}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6406.4855}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2680.10
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6406.4855{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1730

{txt}{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                 dispute{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}allytarg_win {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} -.495563{col 38}{space 2} .0950878{col 49}{space 1}   -5.21{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.6819316{col 79}{space 3}-.3091944
{txt}{space 15}allies_k1 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.2923965{col 38}{space 2} .1030219{col 49}{space 1}   -2.84{col 58}{space 3}0.005{col 66}{space 4}-.4943157{col 79}{space 3}-.0904774
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s_k1 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0181409{col 38}{space 2} .1192409{col 49}{space 1}    0.15{col 58}{space 3}0.879{col 66}{space 4}-.2155669{col 79}{space 3} .2518487
{txt}{space 17}milinst {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0036923{col 38}{space 2} .0167381{col 49}{space 1}   -0.22{col 58}{space 3}0.825{col 66}{space 4}-.0364984{col 79}{space 3} .0291138
{txt}{space 16}pchaloff {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .1959309{col 38}{space 2} .0436756{col 49}{space 1}    4.49{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .1103282{col 79}{space 3} .2815336
{txt}{space 16}pchalneu {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .3376583{col 38}{space 2} .0370759{col 49}{space 1}    9.11{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .2649908{col 79}{space 3} .4103257
{txt}{space 13}ln_distance {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.4045749{col 38}{space 2} .0100358{col 49}{space 1}  -40.31{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.4242448{col 79}{space 3}-.3849051
{txt}{space 20}jdem {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} -.044119{col 38}{space 2} .0362754{col 49}{space 1}   -1.22{col 58}{space 3}0.224{col 66}{space 4}-.1152175{col 79}{space 3} .0269795
{txt}{space 16}s_un_glo {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.5464403{col 38}{space 2}   .05535{col 49}{space 1}   -9.87{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.6549243{col 79}{space 3}-.4379562
{txt}{space 16}peaceyrs {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.0414497{col 38}{space 2} .0019442{col 49}{space 1}  -21.32{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-.0452603{col 79}{space 3} -.037639
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0006487{col 38}{space 2} .0000379{col 49}{space 1}   17.13{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} .0005744{col 79}{space 3} .0007229
{txt}{space 15}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-2.69e-06{col 38}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 49}{space 1}  -14.11{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 79}{space 3}-2.32e-06
{txt}{space 19}_cons {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} 1.654368{col 38}{space 2}  .133137{col 49}{space 1}   12.43{col 58}{space 3}0.000{col 66}{space 4} 1.393424{col 79}{space 3} 1.915312
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
.         drop allytarg_winXallies_s_k1
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A16: military coordination level of the strongest alliance    
. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst_strongest pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5222}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6864.683}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6482.2795}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6478.6177}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6478.6147}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6478.6147}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572172
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2535.81
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6478.6147{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1637

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}          dispute{col 19}{c |}      Coef.{col 31}   Std. Err.{col 43}      z{col 51}   P>|z|{col 59}     [95% Con{col 72}f. Interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
milinst_strongest {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0919429{col 31}{space 2} .0168983{col 42}{space 1}   -5.44{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.1250629{col 72}{space 3}-.0588229
{txt}{space 9}pchaloff {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .2754325{col 31}{space 2} .0423858{col 42}{space 1}    6.50{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  .192358{col 72}{space 3} .3585071
{txt}{space 9}pchalneu {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4093172{col 31}{space 2} .0355948{col 42}{space 1}   11.50{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3395527{col 72}{space 3} .4790817
{txt}{space 6}ln_distance {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.3989245{col 31}{space 2} .0099106{col 42}{space 1}  -40.25{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} -.418349{col 72}{space 3}-.3795001
{txt}{space 13}jdem {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0253366{col 31}{space 2}  .036156{col 42}{space 1}   -0.70{col 51}{space 3}0.483{col 59}{space 4}-.0962011{col 72}{space 3} .0455278
{txt}{space 9}s_un_glo {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.5244296{col 31}{space 2} .0536887{col 42}{space 1}   -9.77{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.6296575{col 72}{space 3}-.4192016
{txt}{space 9}peaceyrs {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-.0435408{col 31}{space 2} .0019235{col 42}{space 1}  -22.64{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-.0473107{col 72}{space 3}-.0397709
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .000664{col 31}{space 2} .0000375{col 42}{space 1}   17.69{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .0005905{col 72}{space 3} .0007376
{txt}{space 8}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 31}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 42}{space 1}  -14.37{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}-3.09e-06{col 72}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  1.08159{col 31}{space 2} .0995024{col 42}{space 1}   10.87{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  .886569{col 72}{space 3} 1.276611
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst_strongest pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3   

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5222}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7053.2828}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6339.2182}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6333.7968}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6333.7911}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6333.7911}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572172
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2825.46
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6333.7911{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1824

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -1.44046{col 35}{space 2} .2453546{col 46}{space 1}   -5.87{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.921346{col 76}{space 3}-.9595739
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.711507{col 35}{space 2}  .240268{col 46}{space 1}   -7.12{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.182423{col 76}{space 3} -1.24059
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.028359{col 35}{space 2}  .269231{col 46}{space 1}    3.82{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .5006757{col 76}{space 3} 1.556042
{txt}{space 4}milinst_strongest {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0913883{col 35}{space 2} .0167782{col 46}{space 1}   -5.45{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.1242731{col 76}{space 3}-.0585036
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1779886{col 35}{space 2} .0445003{col 46}{space 1}    4.00{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0907695{col 76}{space 3} .2652077
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3280011{col 35}{space 2} .0376638{col 46}{space 1}    8.71{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2541815{col 76}{space 3} .4018208
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3974421{col 35}{space 2} .0099552{col 46}{space 1}  -39.92{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -.416954{col 76}{space 3}-.3779302
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0203424{col 35}{space 2} .0362405{col 46}{space 1}   -0.56{col 55}{space 3}0.575{col 63}{space 4}-.0913724{col 76}{space 3} .0506877
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4735424{col 35}{space 2} .0535843{col 46}{space 1}   -8.84{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5785657{col 76}{space 3} -.368519
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0414844{col 35}{space 2}  .001948{col 46}{space 1}  -21.30{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0453024{col 76}{space 3}-.0376663
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006481{col 35}{space 2} .0000379{col 46}{space 1}   17.08{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005738{col 76}{space 3} .0007225
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.69e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.92e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.02{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.06e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.31e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.997069{col 35}{space 2} .2368937{col 46}{space 1}   12.65{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.532766{col 76}{space 3} 3.461372
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A17a: peacetime military coordination as a factor variable
. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute i.milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6840.6679}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6445.6065}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6441.7995}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6441.7965}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6441.7965}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2609.47
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6441.7965{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1684

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}milinst {c |}
{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3507263{col 26}{space 2} .0338594{col 37}{space 1}  -10.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4170895{col 67}{space 3}-.2843631
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2223843{col 26}{space 2}  .033067{col 37}{space 1}   -6.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2871944{col 67}{space 3}-.1575742
{txt}{space 12} {c |}
{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2474502{col 26}{space 2} .0427635{col 37}{space 1}    5.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1636353{col 67}{space 3} .3312651
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3997881{col 26}{space 2} .0359978{col 37}{space 1}   11.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3292338{col 67}{space 3} .4703425
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4005563{col 26}{space 2} .0099825{col 37}{space 1}  -40.13{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4201217{col 67}{space 3}-.3809909
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0697272{col 26}{space 2} .0364176{col 37}{space 1}   -1.91{col 46}{space 3}0.056{col 54}{space 4}-.1411044{col 67}{space 3}   .00165
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5673604{col 26}{space 2} .0544281{col 37}{space 1}  -10.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6740376{col 67}{space 3}-.4606833
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0426425{col 26}{space 2} .0019267{col 37}{space 1}  -22.13{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0464187{col 67}{space 3}-.0388662
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006506{col 26}{space 2} .0000376{col 37}{space 1}   17.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000577{col 67}{space 3} .0007243
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.67e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.04e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.263501{col 26}{space 2} .1035393{col 37}{space 1}   12.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.060568{col 67}{space 3} 1.466434
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s i.milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7036.9718}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6330.6881}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6325.0868}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6325.0807}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6325.0807}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}13{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2842.91
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6325.0807{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1835

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.432549{col 35}{space 2} .2468647{col 46}{space 1}   -5.80{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.916395{col 76}{space 3}-.9487029
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.498722{col 35}{space 2} .2426598{col 46}{space 1}   -6.18{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.974327{col 76}{space 3}-1.023118
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9661347{col 35}{space 2} .2713426{col 46}{space 1}    3.56{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}  .434313{col 76}{space 3} 1.497956
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 14}milinst {c |}
{space 19}2  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.247585{col 35}{space 2} .0356187{col 46}{space 1}   -6.95{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.3173964{col 76}{space 3}-.1777736
{txt}{space 19}3  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1549813{col 35}{space 2} .0339792{col 46}{space 1}   -4.56{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.2215793{col 76}{space 3}-.0883834
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .156024{col 35}{space 2}    .0447{col 46}{space 1}    3.49{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0684137{col 76}{space 3} .2436343
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3151426{col 35}{space 2} .0379261{col 46}{space 1}    8.31{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2408089{col 76}{space 3} .3894763
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3976078{col 35}{space 2} .0100268{col 46}{space 1}  -39.65{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}  -.41726{col 76}{space 3}-.3779555
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0568901{col 35}{space 2} .0365488{col 46}{space 1}   -1.56{col 55}{space 3}0.120{col 63}{space 4}-.1285244{col 76}{space 3} .0147443
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4878174{col 35}{space 2} .0543666{col 46}{space 1}   -8.97{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -.594374{col 76}{space 3}-.3812608
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0410621{col 35}{space 2} .0019492{col 46}{space 1}  -21.07{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0448824{col 76}{space 3}-.0372417
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006428{col 35}{space 2}  .000038{col 46}{space 1}   16.93{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005684{col 76}{space 3} .0007172
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.67e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.91e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -13.96{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.05e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.929218{col 35}{space 2} .2386748{col 46}{space 1}   12.27{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.461424{col 76}{space 3} 3.397012
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A17b: predicted probability of dispute initiation for different levels of the peacetime military coordination variable
. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         keep if milinst~=.
{txt}(13289 observations deleted)

{com}.         
.         gen milinst_m=(milinst==2) if milinst~=.
{txt}
{com}.         gen milinst_h=(milinst==3) if milinst~=.
{txt}
{com}.         
.         tab milinst_m

  {txt}milinst_m {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}    263,511       46.05       46.05
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}    308,667       53.95      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}    572,178      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         tab milinst_h

  {txt}milinst_h {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}    361,579       63.19       63.19
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}    210,599       36.81      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}    572,178      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         
.         set seed 117952
{txt}
{com}. 
.         estsimp probit dispute milinst_m milinst_h allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7746.5334
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-7036.9718
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6371.4659
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6325.9695
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res}-6325.0816
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res}-6325.0807

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    572178
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}13{txt})     = {res}   2842.91
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6325.0807                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1835

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
   milinst_m {c |}  {res} -.247585   .0356187    -6.95   0.000    -.3173963   -.1777736
   {txt}milinst_h {c |}  {res}-.1549813   .0339792    -4.56   0.000    -.2215793   -.0883834
{txt}allytarg_win {c |}  {res}-1.432549   .2468644    -5.80   0.000    -1.916394   -.9487035
    {txt}allies_s {c |}  {res}-1.498722   .2426595    -6.18   0.000    -1.974326   -1.023118
{txt}allytarg_w~s {c |}  {res} .9661347   .2713423     3.56   0.000     .4343137    1.497956
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res}  .156024   .0446999     3.49   0.000     .0684137    .2436343
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .3151426   .0379261     8.31   0.000     .2408089    .3894763
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.3976078   .0100268   -39.65   0.000      -.41726   -.3779555
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0568901   .0365488    -1.56   0.120    -.1285244    .0147442
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.4878174   .0543666    -8.97   0.000     -.594374   -.3812608
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res}-.0410621   .0019492   -21.07   0.000    -.0448824   -.0372417
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006428    .000038    16.93   0.000     .0005684    .0007172
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.67e-06   1.91e-07   -13.96   0.000    -3.05e-06   -2.30e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 2.929218   .2386745    12.27   0.000     2.461425    3.397012
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 50% 57% 64% 71% 78% 85% 92% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12 b13 b14
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx mean
{txt}
{com}.                 setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0
{txt}
{com}.                 
.                 setx milinst_m 0 milinst_h 0
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0010962     .0001136     .0008868     .001327

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx milinst_m 1 milinst_h 0
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0004648     .0000379     .0003944    .0005456

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
{txt}
{com}.                 
.                 setx milinst_m 0 milinst_h 1
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi3)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0006434     .0000489     .0005546    .0007471

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi3
{txt}
{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A18a: AIC comparison
. 
. * H3 without the interaction term
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6948.4112}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6474.6457}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6470.3842}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6470.381}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6470.381}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}10{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2878.20
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6470.381{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1819

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5394771{col 26}{space 2} .0471588{col 37}{space 1}  -11.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6319067{col 67}{space 3}-.4470475
{txt}{space 4}allies_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7742873{col 26}{space 2} .0537793{col 37}{space 1}  -14.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8796928{col 67}{space 3}-.6688818
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .175408{col 26}{space 2} .0438861{col 37}{space 1}    4.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0893927{col 67}{space 3} .2614232
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3243143{col 26}{space 2} .0373526{col 37}{space 1}    8.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2511046{col 67}{space 3}  .397524
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4045613{col 26}{space 2} .0098372{col 37}{space 1}  -41.13{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4238419{col 67}{space 3}-.3852808
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0342893{col 26}{space 2} .0361835{col 37}{space 1}   -0.95{col 46}{space 3}0.343{col 54}{space 4}-.1052076{col 67}{space 3} .0366291
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4658109{col 26}{space 2} .0528467{col 37}{space 1}   -8.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5693885{col 67}{space 3}-.3622333
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0417478{col 26}{space 2} .0019363{col 37}{space 1}  -21.56{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0455429{col 67}{space 3}-.0379527
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006538{col 26}{space 2} .0000377{col 37}{space 1}   17.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005798{col 67}{space 3} .0007277
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.09e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  2.11126{col 26}{space 2} .1144817{col 37}{space 1}   18.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  1.88688{col 67}{space 3}  2.33564
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         fitstat /* AIC = 12962.8 */

{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}probit{txt} of {res}dispute

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:  {res}  -7909.479     {txt}Log-Lik Full Model:      {res}  -6470.381
{txt}D(585421):               {res}  12940.762     {txt}LR(10):                  {res}   2878.197
                                         {txt}Prob > LR:                 {res}    0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:             {res}    0.182     {txt}McFadden's Adj R2:         {res}    0.181
{txt}Maximum Likelihood R2:     {res}    0.005     {txt}Cragg & Uhler's R2:        {res}    0.184
{txt}McKelvey and Zavoina's R2: {res}    0.158     {txt}Efron's R2:                {res}    0.013
{txt}Variance of y*:          {res}      1.188     {txt}Variance of error:       {res}      1.000
{txt}Count R2:                  {res}    0.998     {txt}Adj Count R2:              {res}    0.000
{txt}AIC:                     {res}      0.022     {txt}AIC*n:                   {res}  12962.762
{txt}BIC:                     {res} -7.762e+06     {txt}BIC':                    {res}  -2745.396
{txt}
{com}. 
. * H3 with the interaction term
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7172.4798}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6469.6841}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2561}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2507}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2507}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2890.46
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6464.2507{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1827

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -1.39446{col 35}{space 2} .2426547{col 46}{space 1}   -5.75{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.870054{col 76}{space 3}-.9188654
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.599997{col 35}{space 2} .2355245{col 46}{space 1}   -6.79{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.061617{col 76}{space 3}-1.138378
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9458926{col 35}{space 2} .2651957{col 46}{space 1}    3.57{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4261186{col 76}{space 3} 1.465667
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1676592{col 35}{space 2} .0442419{col 46}{space 1}    3.79{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0809468{col 76}{space 3} .2543717
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3182585{col 35}{space 2} .0375562{col 46}{space 1}    8.47{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2446497{col 76}{space 3} .3918673
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4020711{col 35}{space 2} .0098788{col 46}{space 1}  -40.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4214332{col 76}{space 3} -.382709
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0338663{col 35}{space 2} .0361888{col 46}{space 1}   -0.94{col 55}{space 3}0.349{col 63}{space 4}-.1047951{col 76}{space 3} .0370625
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4629869{col 35}{space 2} .0529946{col 46}{space 1}   -8.74{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5668543{col 76}{space 3}-.3591195
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0415847{col 35}{space 2} .0019378{col 46}{space 1}  -21.46{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0453826{col 76}{space 3}-.0377867
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006511{col 35}{space 2} .0000377{col 46}{space 1}   17.27{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005772{col 76}{space 3}  .000725
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.25{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.33e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.839114{col 35}{space 2} .2306231{col 46}{space 1}   12.31{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.387101{col 76}{space 3} 3.291127
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         fitstat /* AIC = 12952.5 */

{txt}Measures of Fit for {res}probit{txt} of {res}dispute

{txt}Log-Lik Intercept Only:  {res}  -7909.479     {txt}Log-Lik Full Model:      {res}  -6464.251
{txt}D(585420):               {res}  12928.501     {txt}LR(11):                  {res}   2890.458
                                         {txt}Prob > LR:                 {res}    0.000
{txt}McFadden's R2:             {res}    0.183     {txt}McFadden's Adj R2:         {res}    0.181
{txt}Maximum Likelihood R2:     {res}    0.005     {txt}Cragg & Uhler's R2:        {res}    0.185
{txt}McKelvey and Zavoina's R2: {res}    0.155     {txt}Efron's R2:                {res}    0.012
{txt}Variance of y*:          {res}      1.184     {txt}Variance of error:       {res}      1.000
{txt}Count R2:                  {res}    0.998     {txt}Adj Count R2:              {res}    0.000
{txt}AIC:                     {res}      0.022     {txt}AIC*n:                   {res}  12952.501
{txt}BIC:                     {res} -7.762e+06     {txt}BIC':                    {res}  -2744.376
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
.         
. *** Table A18b: first and second differences when we include the interaction term (codes taken from Berry, DeMeritt, and Esarey 2010)
.         
. * H3
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7172.4798}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6469.6841}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2561}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2507}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6464.2507}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2890.46
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6464.2507{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1827

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -1.39446{col 35}{space 2} .2426547{col 46}{space 1}   -5.75{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.870054{col 76}{space 3}-.9188654
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.599997{col 35}{space 2} .2355245{col 46}{space 1}   -6.79{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.061617{col 76}{space 3}-1.138378
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9458926{col 35}{space 2} .2651957{col 46}{space 1}    3.57{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4261186{col 76}{space 3} 1.465667
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1676592{col 35}{space 2} .0442419{col 46}{space 1}    3.79{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0809468{col 76}{space 3} .2543717
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3182585{col 35}{space 2} .0375562{col 46}{space 1}    8.47{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2446497{col 76}{space 3} .3918673
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4020711{col 35}{space 2} .0098788{col 46}{space 1}  -40.70{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4214332{col 76}{space 3} -.382709
{txt}{space 17}jdem {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0338663{col 35}{space 2} .0361888{col 46}{space 1}   -0.94{col 55}{space 3}0.349{col 63}{space 4}-.1047951{col 76}{space 3} .0370625
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4629869{col 35}{space 2} .0529946{col 46}{space 1}   -8.74{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5668543{col 76}{space 3}-.3591195
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0415847{col 35}{space 2} .0019378{col 46}{space 1}  -21.46{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0453826{col 76}{space 3}-.0377867
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006511{col 35}{space 2} .0000377{col 46}{space 1}   17.27{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005772{col 76}{space 3}  .000725
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.25{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.08e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.33e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.839114{col 35}{space 2} .2306231{col 46}{space 1}   12.31{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.387101{col 76}{space 3} 3.291127
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. ** with regards to credibility
. 
.         set seed 284738390
{txt}
{com}. 
.         estsimp probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7909.4794
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-7172.4798
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6509.3635
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6465.0675
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res}-6464.2514
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res}-6464.2507

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    585432
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}11{txt})     = {res}   2890.46
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6464.2507                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1827

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
allytarg_win {c |}  {res} -1.39446   .2426544    -5.75   0.000    -1.870054   -.9188659
    {txt}allies_s {c |}  {res}-1.599997   .2355243    -6.79   0.000    -2.061616   -1.138378
{txt}allytarg_w~s {c |}  {res} .9458926   .2651955     3.57   0.000     .4261191    1.465666
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res} .1676592   .0442419     3.79   0.000     .0809468    .2543717
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .3182585   .0375562     8.47   0.000     .2446497    .3918673
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.4020711   .0098788   -40.70   0.000    -.4214332    -.382709
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0338663   .0361888    -0.94   0.349    -.1047951    .0370625
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.4629869   .0529946    -8.74   0.000    -.5668543   -.3591195
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res}-.0415847   .0019378   -21.46   0.000    -.0453826   -.0377867
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006511   .0000377    17.27   0.000     .0005772     .000725
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.71e-06   1.90e-07   -14.25   0.000    -3.08e-06   -2.33e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 2.839114   .2306229    12.31   0.000     2.387101    3.291126
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 8% 16% 25% 33% 41% 50% 58% 66% 75% 83% 91% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12
{txt}
{com}.         
.                 setx mean
{txt}
{com}.                 setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0
{txt}
{com}.                 
.                 setx allytarg_win 0.91 allies_s 1 allytarg_winXallies_s 0.91
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0004593     .0000311     .0004004    .0005253

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s 1 allytarg_winXallies_s .74
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0006025     .0000407     .0005275    .0006878

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .91 allies_s .76 allytarg_winXallies_s .6916
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi3)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0008547     .0000544       .00075    .0009631

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi3
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s .76 allytarg_winXallies_s .5624
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi4)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0012574     .0000836     .0010946    .0014259

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi4
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen diff1 = pi3 - pi4
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen diff2 = pi1 - pi2
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}. 
.         gen percent_change = ((pi3-pi4)/pi4)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~e {c |}{res}      1000    -31.9748    2.323386  -38.67094   -24.3068
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         /* the probability of winning changes from .74 to .91 when the average S-score is .76 */
.         sum changelow changepoint changehigh /* -32% [-36%, -27%] */

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}changelow {c |}{res}    585467   -36.37236           0  -36.37236  -36.37236
{txt}{space 1}changepoint {c |}{res}    585467   -31.97296           0  -31.97296  -31.97296
{txt}{space 2}changehigh {c |}{res}    585467   -27.07043           0  -27.07043  -27.07043
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen percent_change1 = ((pi1-pi2)/pi2)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change1

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~1 {c |}{res}      1000   -23.73557    2.547337  -31.59612  -15.91414
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change1, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow1=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint1=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh1=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         /* the probability of winning changes from .74 to .91 when the average S-score is 1 */
.         sum changelow1 changepoint1 changehigh1 /* -24% [-28%, -19%] */

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 2}changelow1 {c |}{res}    585467   -28.32147           0  -28.32147  -28.32147
{txt}changepoint1 {c |}{res}    585467   -23.69207           0  -23.69207  -23.69207
{txt}{space 1}changehigh1 {c |}{res}    585467   -18.68967           0  -18.68967  -18.68967
{txt}
{com}.         
.         gen second_diff1 = diff2 - diff1
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         
.         /* the first row of Table A18b */
.         sumqi diff1 diff2 second_diff1 


{txt}  Variable |     Mean       Std. Dev.    [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------+--------------------------------------------------
     diff1 |  {res}{col 15}-.0004027{col 28} .0000458{col 41}-.0004973{col 53}-.0003183
     {txt}diff2 |  {res}{col 15}-.0001433{col 28}   .00002{col 41}-.0001832{col 53}-.0001066
  {txt}second~1 |  {res}{col 15} .0002594{col 28} .0000408{col 41} .0001837{col 53} .0003411
{txt}
{com}.         
.         drop percent* pi* b1-b12 diff* changelow* changepoint* changehigh*
{txt}
{com}. 
. ** with regards to credibility
.         set seed 284738390
{txt}
{com}. 
.         estsimp probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7909.4794
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-7172.4798
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6509.3635
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6465.0675
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res}-6464.2514
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res}-6464.2507

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    585432
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}11{txt})     = {res}   2890.46
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6464.2507                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1827

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
allytarg_win {c |}  {res} -1.39446   .2426544    -5.75   0.000    -1.870054   -.9188659
    {txt}allies_s {c |}  {res}-1.599997   .2355243    -6.79   0.000    -2.061616   -1.138378
{txt}allytarg_w~s {c |}  {res} .9458926   .2651955     3.57   0.000     .4261191    1.465666
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res} .1676592   .0442419     3.79   0.000     .0809468    .2543717
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .3182585   .0375562     8.47   0.000     .2446497    .3918673
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.4020711   .0098788   -40.70   0.000    -.4214332    -.382709
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0338663   .0361888    -0.94   0.349    -.1047951    .0370625
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.4629869   .0529946    -8.74   0.000    -.5668543   -.3591195
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res}-.0415847   .0019378   -21.46   0.000    -.0453826   -.0377867
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006511   .0000377    17.27   0.000     .0005772     .000725
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.71e-06   1.90e-07   -14.25   0.000    -3.08e-06   -2.33e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res} 2.839114   .2306229    12.31   0.000     2.387101    3.291126
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 8% 16% 25% 33% 41% 50% 58% 66% 75% 83% 91% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12
{txt}
{com}.         
.                 setx mean
{txt}
{com}.                 setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0
{txt}
{com}.                 
.                 setx allytarg_win .99 allies_s .91 allytarg_winXallies_s 0.9009
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res}    .0005     .0000334     .0004378    .0005692

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .99 allies_s .76 allytarg_winXallies_s .7524
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0007099     .0000488     .0006187    .0008057

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s .91 allytarg_winXallies_s .6734
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi3)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0007978     .0000496     .0007075    .0008992

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi3
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s .76 allytarg_winXallies_s .5624
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi4)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0012574     .0000836     .0010946    .0014259

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi4
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen diff1 = pi3 - pi4
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen diff2 = pi1 - pi2
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}. 
.         gen percent_change = ((pi3-pi4)/pi4)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~e {c |}{res}      1000   -36.50429      2.0148  -42.58763  -29.60061
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         /* the average S-score changes from .76 to .91 when the average S-score is .74 */
.         sum changelow changepoint changehigh /* -37% [-40%, -32%] */

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}changelow {c |}{res}    585467   -40.46938           0  -40.46938  -40.46938
{txt}{space 1}changepoint {c |}{res}    585467   -36.52795           0  -36.52795  -36.52795
{txt}{space 2}changehigh {c |}{res}    585467   -32.18969           0  -32.18969  -32.18969
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen percent_change1 = ((pi1-pi2)/pi2)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change1

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~1 {c |}{res}      1000   -29.52153    2.357784  -36.84701  -22.20218
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change1, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow1=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint1=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh1=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         /* the average S-score changes from .76 to .91 when the average S-score is .99 */
.         sum changelow1 changepoint1 changehigh1  /* -29% [-34%, -25%] */

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 2}changelow1 {c |}{res}    585467   -34.31146           0  -34.31146  -34.31146
{txt}changepoint1 {c |}{res}    585467   -29.49093           0  -29.49093  -29.49093
{txt}{space 1}changehigh1 {c |}{res}    585467   -24.85544           0  -24.85544  -24.85544
{txt}
{com}.         gen second_diff2 = diff2 - diff1
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         
.         /* the second row of Table A18b */
.         sumqi diff1 diff2 second_diff2


{txt}  Variable |     Mean       Std. Dev.    [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------+--------------------------------------------------
     diff1 |  {res}{col 15}-.0004596{col 28} .0000463{col 41}-.0005498{col 53}-.0003705
     {txt}diff2 |  {res}{col 15}-.0002099{col 28} .0000252{col 41} -.000264{col 53}-.0001632
  {txt}second~2 |  {res}{col 15} .0002497{col 28} .0000395{col 41} .0001765{col 53} .0003282
{txt}
{com}.         drop percent* pi* b1-b12 diff* changelow* changepoint* changehigh*
{txt}
{com}.         
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. *** Table A18c: first and second differences when we exclude the interaction term 
. 
.         set seed 284738390
{txt}
{com}. 
. ** with regards to capability
.         estsimp probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7909.4794
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-6948.4112
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6495.4336
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6470.6212
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res} -6470.381
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res} -6470.381

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    585432
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}10{txt})     = {res}   2878.20
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6470.381                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1819

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
allytarg_win {c |}  {res}-.5394771   .0471588   -11.44   0.000    -.6319067   -.4470475
    {txt}allies_s {c |}  {res}-.7742873   .0537793   -14.40   0.000    -.8796928   -.6688817
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res}  .175408   .0438861     4.00   0.000     .0893927    .2614232
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .3243144   .0373526     8.68   0.000     .2511046    .3975241
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.4045613   .0098372   -41.13   0.000    -.4238419   -.3852808
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0342893   .0361835    -0.95   0.343    -.1052076     .036629
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.4658108   .0528467    -8.81   0.000    -.5693884   -.3622332
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res}-.0417478   .0019363   -21.56   0.000    -.0455429   -.0379527
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006538   .0000377    17.34   0.000     .0005798    .0007277
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.72e-06   1.90e-07   -14.30   0.000    -3.09e-06   -2.35e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res}  2.11126   .1144817    18.44   0.000      1.88688     2.33564
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 9% 18% 27% 36% 45% 54% 63% 72% 81% 90% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11
{txt}
{com}.         
.                 setx mean
{txt}
{com}.                 setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0
{txt}
{com}.                 
.                 setx allytarg_win 0.91 allies_s 1 
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0004462     .0000299     .0003894    .0005092

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s 1 
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0006171     .0000419     .0005408    .0006996

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .91 allies_s .76
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi3)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0008542     .0000542     .0007539     .000958

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi3
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s .76 
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi4)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0011629     .0000769     .0010189    .0013146

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi4
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen diff1 = pi3 - pi4
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen diff2 = pi1 - pi2
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}. 
.         gen percent_change = ((pi3-pi4)/pi4)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~e {c |}{res}      1000   -26.50304    1.974661  -32.45882  -19.96841
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         sum changelow changepoint changehigh

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}changelow {c |}{res}    585467   -30.20267           0  -30.20267  -30.20267
{txt}{space 1}changepoint {c |}{res}    585467   -26.43958           0  -26.43958  -26.43958
{txt}{space 2}changehigh {c |}{res}    585467   -22.49159           0  -22.49159  -22.49159
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen percent_change1 = ((pi1-pi2)/pi2)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change1

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~1 {c |}{res}      1000   -27.65968    2.053127  -33.95157  -20.93088
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change1, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow1=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint1=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh1=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         sum changelow1 changepoint1 changehigh1 

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 2}changelow1 {c |}{res}    585467   -31.52567           0  -31.52567  -31.52567
{txt}changepoint1 {c |}{res}    585467   -27.62901           0  -27.62901  -27.62901
{txt}{space 1}changehigh1 {c |}{res}    585467   -23.43262           0  -23.43262  -23.43262
{txt}
{com}.         gen second_diff3 = diff2 - diff1
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         
.         /* the first row of Table A18c */
.         sumqi diff1 diff2 second_diff3


{txt}  Variable |     Mean       Std. Dev.    [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------+--------------------------------------------------
     diff1 |  {res}{col 15}-.0003087{col 28}  .000035{col 41}-.0003774{col 53}-.0002429
     {txt}diff2 |  {res}{col 15}-.0001709{col 28} .0000191{col 41}-.0002076{col 53}-.0001339
  {txt}second~3 |  {res}{col 15} .0001378{col 28} .0000184{col 41} .0001034{col 53} .0001734
{txt}
{com}.         
.         drop percent* pi* b1-b11 diff* changelow* changepoint* changehigh*
{txt}
{com}. 
. ** with regards to credibility
.         set seed 284738390
{txt}
{com}. 
.         estsimp probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{txt}Iteration 0:   log likelihood = {res}-7909.4794
{txt}Iteration 1:   log likelihood = {res}-6948.4112
{txt}Iteration 2:   log likelihood = {res}-6495.4336
{txt}Iteration 3:   log likelihood = {res}-6470.6212
{txt}Iteration 4:   log likelihood = {res} -6470.381
{txt}Iteration 5:   log likelihood = {res} -6470.381

{txt}Probit regression                                 Number of obs   = {res}    585432
                                                  {txt}LR chi2({res}10{txt})     = {res}   2878.20
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res} -6470.381                       {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.1819

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
     dispute {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
allytarg_win {c |}  {res}-.5394771   .0471588   -11.44   0.000    -.6319067   -.4470475
    {txt}allies_s {c |}  {res}-.7742873   .0537793   -14.40   0.000    -.8796928   -.6688817
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}  {res}  .175408   .0438861     4.00   0.000     .0893927    .2614232
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}  {res} .3243144   .0373526     8.68   0.000     .2511046    .3975241
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}  {res}-.4045613   .0098372   -41.13   0.000    -.4238419   -.3852808
        {txt}jdem {c |}  {res}-.0342893   .0361835    -0.95   0.343    -.1052076     .036629
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}  {res}-.4658108   .0528467    -8.81   0.000    -.5693884   -.3622332
    {txt}peaceyrs {c |}  {res}-.0417478   .0019363   -21.56   0.000    -.0455429   -.0379527
   {txt}peaceyrs2 {c |}  {res} .0006538   .0000377    17.34   0.000     .0005798    .0007277
   {txt}peaceyrs3 {c |}  {res}-2.72e-06   1.90e-07   -14.30   0.000    -3.09e-06   -2.35e-06
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res}  2.11126   .1144817    18.44   0.000      1.88688     2.33564
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 9% 18% 27% 36% 45% 54% 63% 72% 81% 90% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11
{txt}
{com}.         
.                 setx mean
{txt}
{com}.                 setx pchaloff 0 pchalneu 0 jdem 0
{txt}
{com}.                 
.                 setx allytarg_win .99 allies_s .91
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0004906     .0000321     .0004344    .0005562

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .99 allies_s .76
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res}  .000737     .0000487     .0006494    .0008267

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s .91
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi3)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0007854     .0000502     .0006947    .0008872

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi3
{txt}
{com}. 
.                 setx allytarg_win .74 allies_s .76 
{txt}
{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi4)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(dispute=1) |  {res} .0011629     .0000769     .0010189    .0013146

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi4
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen diff1 = pi3 - pi4
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen diff2 = pi1 - pi2
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}. 
.         gen percent_change = ((pi3-pi4)/pi4)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~e {c |}{res}      1000   -32.42626    1.809772  -37.55309  -26.74998
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         sum changelow changepoint changehigh

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 3}changelow {c |}{res}    585467   -36.00598           0  -36.00598  -36.00598
{txt}{space 1}changepoint {c |}{res}    585467     -32.493           0    -32.493    -32.493
{txt}{space 2}changehigh {c |}{res}    585467    -28.8445           0   -28.8445   -28.8445
{txt}
{com}. 
.         gen percent_change1 = ((pi1-pi2)/pi2)*100
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         sum percent_change1

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
percent_ch~1 {c |}{res}      1000   -33.40441    1.859192  -38.61808  -27.56667
{txt}
{com}.         _pctile percent_change1, p(2.5,50,97.5)
{txt}
{com}.         gen changelow1=r(r1) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changepoint1=r(r2) 
{txt}
{com}.         gen changehigh1=r(r3)
{txt}
{com}.         
.         sum changelow1 changepoint1 changehigh1 

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 2}changelow1 {c |}{res}    585467    -37.0653           0   -37.0653   -37.0653
{txt}changepoint1 {c |}{res}    585467   -33.48063           0  -33.48063  -33.48063
{txt}{space 1}changehigh1 {c |}{res}    585467   -29.73983           0  -29.73983  -29.73983
{txt}
{com}.         gen second_diff4 = diff2 - diff1
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}.         
.         /* the second row of Table A18c */
.         sumqi diff1 diff2 second_diff4


{txt}  Variable |     Mean       Std. Dev.    [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------+--------------------------------------------------
     diff1 |  {res}{col 15}-.0003775{col 28} .0000368{col 41}-.0004486{col 53}-.0003049
     {txt}diff2 |  {res}{col 15}-.0002464{col 28} .0000236{col 41} -.000293{col 53}-.0002001
  {txt}second~4 |  {res}{col 15} .0001311{col 28} .0000175{col 41} .0000978{col 53} .0001655
{txt}
{com}.         
. 
. * compare second differences
. 
. gen diff_diff1=second_diff1-second_diff3
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}. gen diff_diff2=second_diff2-second_diff4
{txt}(584467 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. ttest diff_diff1==0 /* comparison of (1) and (3) in the appendix, Table A18b and Table A18c */

{txt}One-sample t test
{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 68}
Variable{col 10}{c |}{col 16}Obs{col 27}Mean{col 35}Std. Err.{col 47}Std. Dev.{col 59}[95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
diff_d~1 {c |}{res}{col 12}   1000{col 22} .0001217{col 34} 9.54e-07{col 46} .0000302{col 58} .0001198{col 70} .0001236
{txt}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 68}
    mean = mean({res}diff_diff1{txt})                                       t = {res}127.5948
{txt}Ho: mean = {res}0                                     {txt}degrees of freedom = {res}     999

    {txt}Ha: mean < {res}0                 {txt}Ha: mean != {res}0                 {txt}Ha: mean > {res}0
 {txt}Pr(T < t) = {res}1.0000         {txt}Pr(|T| > |t|) = {res}0.0000          {txt}Pr(T > t) = {res}0.0000
{txt}
{com}. ttest diff_diff2==0 /* comparison of (2) and (4) in the appendix, Table A18b and Table A18c */

{txt}One-sample t test
{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 68}
Variable{col 10}{c |}{col 16}Obs{col 27}Mean{col 35}Std. Err.{col 47}Std. Dev.{col 59}[95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
diff_d~2 {c |}{res}{col 12}   1000{col 22} .0001186{col 34} 9.20e-07{col 46} .0000291{col 58} .0001168{col 70} .0001204
{txt}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 68}
    mean = mean({res}diff_diff2{txt})                                       t = {res}128.8571
{txt}Ho: mean = {res}0                                     {txt}degrees of freedom = {res}     999

    {txt}Ha: mean < {res}0                 {txt}Ha: mean != {res}0                 {txt}Ha: mean > {res}0
 {txt}Pr(T < t) = {res}1.0000         {txt}Pr(|T| > |t|) = {res}0.0000          {txt}Pr(T > t) = {res}0.0000
{txt}
{com}. 
.         
. *** Table A19: lower joint democracy threshold (>=5)    
.         
. * H1
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem_5 s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6971.5067}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -6560.746}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6556.7154}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6556.7123}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6556.7123}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2705.53
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6556.7123{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1710

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
allytarg_win {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4888076{col 26}{space 2} .0464639{col 37}{space 1}  -10.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5798751{col 67}{space 3}  -.39774
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1968667{col 26}{space 2} .0433678{col 37}{space 1}    4.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1118673{col 67}{space 3} .2818661
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .338205{col 26}{space 2} .0366799{col 37}{space 1}    9.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2663137{col 67}{space 3} .4100963
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4021709{col 26}{space 2} .0099181{col 37}{space 1}  -40.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -.42161{col 67}{space 3}-.3827318
{txt}{space 6}jdem_5 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0736636{col 26}{space 2} .0352445{col 37}{space 1}   -2.09{col 46}{space 3}0.037{col 54}{space 4}-.1427415{col 67}{space 3}-.0045857
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4587923{col 26}{space 2} .0536748{col 37}{space 1}   -8.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.563993{col 67}{space 3}-.3535915
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0437305{col 26}{space 2}  .001922{col 37}{space 1}  -22.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0474975{col 67}{space 3}-.0399635
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006773{col 26}{space 2} .0000376{col 37}{space 1}   18.03{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006037{col 67}{space 3} .0007509
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.80e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.17e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.43e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.381663{col 26}{space 2} .1026064{col 37}{space 1}   13.47{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.180558{col 67}{space 3} 1.582767
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H2
. 
.         probit dispute allies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem_5 s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6973.7155}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6529.8283}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6525.8222}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6525.8191}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6525.8191}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2767.32
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6525.8191{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1749

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}allies_s {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7307443{col 26}{space 2} .0533854{col 37}{space 1}  -13.69{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8353778{col 67}{space 3}-.6261108
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2404897{col 26}{space 2} .0427095{col 37}{space 1}    5.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1567806{col 67}{space 3} .3241988
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3973832{col 26}{space 2} .0361554{col 37}{space 1}   10.99{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3265199{col 67}{space 3} .4682465
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4065907{col 26}{space 2} .0097578{col 37}{space 1}  -41.67{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4257156{col 67}{space 3}-.3874659
{txt}{space 6}jdem_5 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0797728{col 26}{space 2} .0351078{col 37}{space 1}   -2.27{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4}-.1485829{col 67}{space 3}-.0109628
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5193799{col 26}{space 2} .0523883{col 37}{space 1}   -9.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6220591{col 67}{space 3}-.4167007
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0417524{col 26}{space 2} .0019262{col 37}{space 1}  -21.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0455276{col 67}{space 3}-.0379771
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006457{col 26}{space 2} .0000375{col 37}{space 1}   17.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005722{col 67}{space 3} .0007192
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.67e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.04e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.658136{col 26}{space 2} .1063476{col 37}{space 1}   15.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.449699{col 67}{space 3} 1.866574
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H3
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem_5 s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7909.4794}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7171.1444}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6468.1428}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6462.6396}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6462.6341}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6462.6341}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    585432
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2893.69
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6462.6341{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1829

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.389823{col 35}{space 2} .2426767{col 46}{space 1}   -5.73{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-1.865461{col 76}{space 3}-.9141857
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.596765{col 35}{space 2} .2355503{col 46}{space 1}   -6.78{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.058435{col 76}{space 3}-1.135095
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9425242{col 35}{space 2} .2652287{col 46}{space 1}    3.55{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4226855{col 76}{space 3} 1.462363
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1634633{col 35}{space 2}  .044257{col 46}{space 1}    3.69{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0767211{col 76}{space 3} .2502055
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3189008{col 35}{space 2} .0375742{col 46}{space 1}    8.49{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2452568{col 76}{space 3} .3925448
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4025394{col 35}{space 2} .0098811{col 46}{space 1}  -40.74{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -.421906{col 76}{space 3}-.3831729
{txt}{space 15}jdem_5 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.070321{col 35}{space 2} .0352302{col 46}{space 1}   -2.00{col 55}{space 3}0.046{col 63}{space 4}-.1393708{col 76}{space 3}-.0012712
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4573321{col 35}{space 2}  .052998{col 46}{space 1}   -8.63{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5612063{col 76}{space 3}-.3534579
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0416356{col 35}{space 2} .0019389{col 46}{space 1}  -21.47{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.0454358{col 76}{space 3}-.0378354
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0006531{col 35}{space 2} .0000377{col 46}{space 1}   17.30{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005791{col 76}{space 3}  .000727
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.90e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.27{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.09e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.34e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.838256{col 35}{space 2} .2306195{col 46}{space 1}   12.31{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}  2.38625{col 76}{space 3} 3.290262
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * H4
. 
.         probit dispute milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem_5 s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6869.8484}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6492.8363}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6489.1681}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6489.1652}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6489.1652}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2514.74
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6489.1652{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1623

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}milinst {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  -.03521{col 26}{space 2} .0169062{col 37}{space 1}   -2.08{col 46}{space 3}0.037{col 54}{space 4}-.0683456{col 67}{space 3}-.0020744
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2670931{col 26}{space 2}   .04236{col 37}{space 1}    6.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .184069{col 67}{space 3} .3501171
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4069374{col 26}{space 2} .0356378{col 37}{space 1}   11.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3370886{col 67}{space 3} .4767862
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3987505{col 26}{space 2} .0099208{col 37}{space 1}  -40.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.4181949{col 67}{space 3}-.3793062
{txt}{space 6}jdem_5 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0752979{col 26}{space 2} .0351704{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.032{col 54}{space 4}-.1442306{col 67}{space 3}-.0063651
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5116279{col 26}{space 2}  .053907{col 37}{space 1}   -9.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6172837{col 67}{space 3}-.4059721
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0433017{col 26}{space 2} .0019243{col 37}{space 1}  -22.50{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0470732{col 67}{space 3}-.0395302
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006629{col 26}{space 2} .0000375{col 37}{space 1}   17.66{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0005893{col 67}{space 3} .0007365
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.72e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -14.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.09e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.35e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.043128{col 26}{space 2} .1067319{col 37}{space 1}    9.77{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8339372{col 67}{space 3} 1.252319
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Combined
. 
.         probit dispute allytarg_win allies_s allytarg_winXallies_s milinst pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance jdem_5 s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7746.5334}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-7057.4866}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6350.3457}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6344.9601}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6344.9545}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-6344.9545}  
{res}
{txt}Probit regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    572178
{txt}{col 51}LR chi2({res}12{txt}){col 67}= {res}   2803.16
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-6344.9545{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1809

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}              dispute{col 23}{c |}      Coef.{col 35}   Std. Err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% Con{col 76}f. Interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}allytarg_win {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.399989{col 35}{space 2} .2443573{col 46}{space 1}   -5.73{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -1.87892{col 76}{space 3}-.9210571
{txt}{space 13}allies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.623001{col 35}{space 2} .2389149{col 46}{space 1}   -6.79{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-2.091265{col 76}{space 3}-1.154736
{txt}allytarg_winXallies_s {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9548674{col 35}{space 2} .2679364{col 46}{space 1}    3.56{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .4297218{col 76}{space 3} 1.480013
{txt}{space 14}milinst {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0328051{col 35}{space 2}  .016916{col 46}{space 1}   -1.94{col 55}{space 3}0.052{col 63}{space 4}-.0659598{col 76}{space 3} .0003496
{txt}{space 13}pchaloff {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1678095{col 35}{space 2} .0444398{col 46}{space 1}    3.78{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}  .080709{col 76}{space 3} .2549099
{txt}{space 13}pchalneu {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3224656{col 35}{space 2} .0377043{col 46}{space 1}    8.55{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .2485666{col 76}{space 3} .3963646
{txt}{space 10}ln_distance {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.3973157{col 35}{space 2} .0099626{col 46}{space 1}  -39.88{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.4168419{col 76}{space 3}-.3777894
{txt}{space 15}jdem_5 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0670269{col 35}{space 2} .0352515{col 46}{space 1}   -1.90{col 55}{space 3}0.057{col 63}{space 4}-.1361187{col 76}{space 3} .0020648
{txt}{space 13}s_un_glo {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.4567336{col 35}{space 2} .0538662{col 46}{space 1}   -8.48{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-.5623095{col 76}{space 3}-.3511578
{txt}{space 13}peaceyrs {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.041253{col 35}{space 2} .0019495{col 46}{space 1}  -21.16{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} -.045074{col 76}{space 3} -.037432
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .000648{col 35}{space 2}  .000038{col 46}{space 1}   17.07{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} .0005736{col 76}{space 3} .0007225
{txt}{space 12}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.70e-06{col 35}{space 2} 1.92e-07{col 46}{space 1}  -14.07{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4}-3.07e-06{col 76}{space 3}-2.32e-06
{txt}{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 2.894002{col 35}{space 2} .2401487{col 46}{space 1}   12.05{col 55}{space 3}0.000{col 63}{space 4} 2.423319{col 76}{space 3} 3.364684
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
.         
. *************************************
. *** Results included in footnotes ***
. *************************************
. 
. *** Footnote 4: the mean and median age of an alliance at the time of a dispute
. preserve
{txt}
{com}. keep if dispute==1
{txt}(584382 observations deleted)

{com}. sum average_time, d /* mean = 16.75 and median = 12.5 */

       {txt}the mean number of years passed since alliance
                          formation
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}        0              0
{txt} 5%    {res}        1              0
{txt}10%    {res}        2              0       {txt}Obs         {res}       1012
{txt}25%    {res}   5.5625              0       {txt}Sum of Wgt. {res}       1012

{txt}50%    {res}     12.5                      {txt}Mean          {res} 16.74726
                        {txt}Largest       Std. Dev.     {res} 13.88063
{txt}75%    {res}     25.5             52
{txt}90%    {res}     38.5           52.5       {txt}Variance      {res} 192.6718
{txt}95%    {res}       46           52.5       {txt}Skewness      {res} .8510528
{txt}99%    {res}     50.5           52.5       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 2.688547
{txt}
{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *******************************************************************************
. 
. *** Footnote 18: the correlation between the S-score and sharing a defense pact
. 
. clear
{txt}
{com}. use "footnote18.dta" 
{txt}
{com}. corr defense_pact s_un_glo /* 0.2409 */
{txt}(obs=656870)

             {c |} defens~t s_un_glo
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 18}
defense_pact {c |}{res}   1.0000
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}{res}   0.2409   1.0000

{txt}
{com}. 
. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\IMC-one\Dropbox\New_folder\APSA deterrence data\Replication\JohnsonLeedsWuIIrep.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}30 Sep 2014, 21:29:25
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}